\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 636 Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) )
Main points:
Event:
According to the annual report released by the company, the revenue in 2021 was 449 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of + 38.43%, of which the growth rate of missile borne revenue was + 138.46%, the growth rate of airborne revenue was 56.50%, the advantages of airborne field were stable, and the volume of missile borne field was accelerated; In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 112 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of + 30.30%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 101 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of + 20.49%. If the impact of 26.16 million share based payment expenses caused by equity incentive is excluded, the net profit attributable to the parent company has a year-on-year growth rate of + 56.28%, and the performance is bright.
Industry: large market space in airborne field and good growth in missile borne field
In the field of airborne, avionics system accounts for nearly half of the value of the whole military aircraft. Benefiting from the large volume of main combat aircraft and the increase in the value proportion of avionics system, it is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 30% every year; In the missile borne field, benefiting from the large volume of main battle missiles and the improvement of precision guidance penetration, it is expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 50% every year; In the field of vehicle and shipborne, it mainly benefits from the Informatization Transformation of weapon platforms, which is expected to maintain a natural growth of 10-15% every year. We conservatively estimate that the annual market space of military embedded computers equipped with main battle equipment alone exceeds 10 billion, up to 100 billion. The industry structure is relatively scattered. At present, China is mainly dominated by the computers of various military academies. As a supporting and supplement, the market share of civilian military enterprises is still very low, and the industrial chain has the national industrialization capacity.
The company's revenue growth is carefree. Due to localization and large volume, the gross profit margin may be slightly reduced, and the net profit margin may maintain a stable revenue end. In 2021, the airborne accounts for 61.25% and the missile borne accounts for 14.30%. The airborne continues its advantages and the missile borne proportion increases rapidly. It is expected to form a pattern of 40-50% and 30-40% in the future. On the cost side, the comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 was 61.08%, a decrease of about 2 percentage points compared with last year, in which the gross profit margin of aircraft decreased slightly due to localization and increase in shipment; The gross profit margin of missile borne products has increased due to the small base last year and the change of product structure, but it will decrease with the volume in the long run; Due to the small proportion of vehicle and shipborne revenue, the gross profit margin will fluctuate normally with the change of product structure in that year. On the whole, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin has decreased year by year, and the price is changed for quantity, but it will still remain at a high level; On the expense side, due to the impact of amortization of equity incentive expenses, the rate of sales, management and R & D expenses has increased. It is estimated that the share based payment expenses will be 38 million and 13 million respectively from 2022 to 2023, and the impact will decrease year by year. With the high growth of income, the overall expense rate will also decrease year by year. To sum up, the net interest rate of the company is expected to remain stable in the next 2-3 years.
Investment advice
Looking forward to this year, the company's airborne and missile borne revenue will grow without worry, and the high-value data acquisition and storage product line is expected to open up more space. In the long run, the company's customer expansion is smooth, there are abundant projects under research, the operation efficiency of the platform R & D system is gradually improved, the amortization of equity incentive expenses is reduced, and mingkesi micro is also expected to realize consolidation after turning the loss. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 will be 147 million yuan and 216 million yuan (the previous value is 156 million yuan and 232 million yuan). It is newly predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 303 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 292, 429 and 603 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 31.59x/21.53x/15.31x from 2022 to 2024 respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
1) lifting the ban in large amount; 2) Amortization of equity incentive expenses.
