\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 180 Ninestar Corporation(002180) )
Event: the company disclosed the performance forecast of the first quarter of 2022 and the performance express of 2021, and the performance increased significantly year-on-year.
(1) 2022q1 performance forecast: 2022q1 company's net profit attributable to the parent company is 420 million-460 million (year-on-year + 69% to 85%):
In 2022q1, Bento's net profit was + 30% year-on-year, printer sales were + 33% year-on-year, and original consumables increased rapidly with the increase of ownership, with a year-on-year increase of + 60%. At the same time, it increased the R & D investment of medium and high-end models and raised the cost;
In 2022q1, the EBITDA of Lexmark was + 16% year-on-year, and the sales volume of printers was + 7%. With the gradual elimination of epidemic control in European and American markets, the original consumables began to recover significantly;
The net profit of 2022q1 general consumables was - 20%, which was mainly affected by the epidemic situation and the shortage of labor in the Spring Festival, showing a trend of low first and then high, and gradually recovering;
2022q1 chip net profit increased by + 10% year-on-year, industrial control and safety, automobile and new energy, consumer electronics business achieved rapid growth, and revenue increased by + 150% year-on-year. It is expected that several 32-bit MCU chip products in 2022h1 will be subject to vehicle regulation aec-q100 certification, while iso26262 vehicle functional safety system certification and new product research and development will also be carried out smoothly according to the progress.
(2) annual performance express in 2021: in 2021, the company achieved total operating revenue of 22.792 billion (+ 7.94%), operating profit of 2.025 billion (+ 823%), total profit of 2.006 billion (+ 800%), and net profit attributable to parent company of 1.163 billion (+ 701%).
Viewpoint:
(1) the performance growth brought by the globalization and domestic substitution of printers and original consumables in the short and medium term is expected to continue to exceed market expectations. The market is worried that the company's main business, printers and consumables, as a mature market, has limited space. We believe that the focus of the printing track should not be on the high growth of the overall scale of the industry, but on globalization and domestic substitution.
The printer is a monopoly track with very limited competitors. The company's printer and consumables track after supply chain integration has no competitors in China, and the competition situation of the industry is far better than most high growth tracks. Although printers and consumables are relatively mature, they have high technology, patent barriers and high capital investment barriers. They are typical monopoly industries. The main players in the world and China are American and Japanese enterprises, such as HP (accounting for about 40%), Canon, brothers, etc;
The company has begun to replace a large number of American and Japanese enterprises in the market led by China Xinchuang. According to the company's announcement, the proportion of the company's shipments in China increased from 1.3% to 4.1% and 4.09% from 2016 to 2020; In contrast, the sales volume of Kyocera and other manufacturers decreased by 10.86%. We can see that the company has replaced 37.66% of the shrinking share of small and medium-sized manufacturers;
Under the background of global printer upgrading and insufficient core supply, the company fully seized the opportunity, made good use of Lexmark's technical support and the global marketing network accumulated by general consumables, and realized the large volume of middle-end printers in the world. In addition, the original consumables will also grow rapidly in the next few years with the increase of the ownership of the whole machine.
(2) the company's performance is based on Bento printer in the short term, original consumables in the medium term, and IOT chip at the same time.
Focus on the globalization and domestic substitution of bentu in the short term. In 2021, the sales volume of overseas printers will be + 60%, and that of Chinese printers will be + 48%. Bento complete machine and original consumables will continue to provide about 50% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in the future;
In the medium term, focus on the original consumables that increase with the ownership. Original consumables manufacturers generally enjoy the protection period of 6-18 months after the new machine is listed, which means that the increase in the ownership of Bento printer will significantly drive the sales of original toner cartridges in the next two years. At the same time, the gradual elimination of epidemic control in European and American markets also makes Lexmark stabilize and recover, reducing the uncertainty of performance;
In addition, more attention should be paid to IOT chips. At present, due to the high gross profit margin, the chip has occupied about 50% of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company. The company's core competitiveness on the chip is its compatible substitution ability and attack and defense experience with other manufacturers. We believe that with the company's batch cooperation and supply in the fields of new energy, industrial control and automobile, the company is expected to fully benefit from the broader IOT chip field.
Risk tips: insufficient supply of chips and other components, repeated outbreaks in China, foreign paperless office trend, slowdown in the global and Chinese substitution volume trend of printers, serious shrinkage of general consumables market, blockade and attack of major foreign competitors, etc.
