\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 636 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) )
Investment summary:
The annual performance increased rapidly, and the increase of Q4 cost decreased compared with the general profitability: the company's operating revenue in 2021 was 14.572 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.12%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.223 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 133.38%; Both revenue and net profit are close to the median value of the performance forecast, which is in line with our expectations. In 2021q4, the single quarter revenue was 3.807 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.26%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 576 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%; The gross profit margin in the single quarter fell to 37.6%, down 19.95pcts month on month, mainly due to the rise of soda ash, fuel and other main raw materials.
Float glass business is booming all year round. In the whole year, the company produced 19170000 heavy cases of float original films, the price of a single case was 104.21 yuan, and the cost of a single case was 50.47 yuan. Among them, the cost of Q4 has increased greatly. We calculate that the cost of a single case of Q4 is about 80 yuan, an increase of 33 yuan compared with the average cost of the first three times. In 2021, the glass sales price fluctuated greatly, continued to rise in the first and second quarters, and fell back after reaching the peak in the third quarter. The gross profit margin of energy-saving glass increased against the trend, and the integrated leader of building glass did not change its original color. The annual revenue of energy-saving glass was 2.032 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 42.02%, exceeding our expectations. In the case of a large increase in the price of the original glass, it bucked the trend and increased by 8.83 PCTs year-on-year, highlighting the ability of the glass Integration Leader to transmit cost pressure to the downstream. The subsidiaries Changxing energy conservation and Tianjin energy conservation are still in the production capacity release period, and the energy-saving glass is expected to continue to contribute to the performance increment in 2022.
The photovoltaic glass industry will compete with each other, and Qibin will obtain a greater share to grow and rebuild a new Qibin. We expect that by 2024, the company's cumulative photovoltaic glass production capacity is expected to reach 18000T / D, which exceeds the company's existing float glass production capacity of 17600t / D, and build a new Qibin. On April 7, the company announced that it would invest in the construction of four 1200t / D photovoltaic glass production lines in Zhaotong, Yunnan, and invest in silica sand ore to ensure the supply of raw materials. In addition, the company will invest in the construction of two 1200t / D production lines in Malaysia. In combination with the hearing plan recently announced by the Department of industry and information technology of Zhejiang Province and Fujian Province, the company will build four 1200t / D production lines in Ningbo and two 1200t / D production lines in Zhangzhou; In addition, one production line in Chenzhou is about to be put into operation and two production lines in Shaoxing are under promotion. Even if we do not consider the production capacity of 2500t / D of ultra white floating method of photovoltaic glass converted by the company in the early stage, the cumulative production capacity of photovoltaic glass is still expected to reach 18000T / D by 2024. As a leading glass enterprise, Qibin has stronger financial strength, and its production expansion and landing speed may exceed that of small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition, the cost advantage accumulated by the company in the traditional float glass industry is expected to continue in new fields. The company still has the procurement advantage of soda ash, ultra white sand and other similar materials. We are highly optimistic about Qibin's comprehensive competitiveness in the field of photovoltaic glass.
The traditional glass long boom contributes to the steady basic sector, and the downward logic of the cycle is blocked. The new capacity of traditional float glass is limited by policies and there is no significant capacity increase. At present, the utilization rate of production line has reached 85.53%, and the supply and demand pattern has been tight for a long time. Leading enterprises have obvious profit advantages over the backward production capacity (over age production line) in the industry. The backward production capacity acts as a safety cushion for the price of float glass, there is no danger of downward cycle, and the high profit level of leading enterprises is expected to continue. We expect that the price of glass will rise steadily in 2022, which is now at the bottom. In the future, it will gradually rise with the guaranteed delivery of real estate and steady growth. The price of soda ash is expected to be slightly higher than that of last year, and the cost of fuel is expected to be slightly higher than that of last year.
The float has a long business cycle and the capacity increment of photovoltaic glass has increased significantly. The investment value of Qibin should be re examined. The company has always maintained a high shareholder return. It plans to pay 6 yuan in 2021, with a dividend rate of about 4.56%. On March 19, the company announced that it plans to buy back 28-42 million shares with 450 million yuan. The industrial capital repurchase shows the confidence of long-term development. We suggest to re-examine the investment value of Qibin under the long business cycle of glass.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic that the company's traditional business will continue to contribute to the steady basic market. Innovative businesses such as photovoltaic glass and electronic glass will help rebuild a new Qibin. The current stock price is seriously undervalued. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.964 billion yuan, 4.267 billion yuan and 4.771 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.48 yuan, 1.59 yuan and 1.78 yuan, maintaining the target price of 28.3 yuan and continuing to give a "buy" rating.
Risk tip: changes in photovoltaic glass production capacity policy, sharp decline in the construction industry, and failure of real estate enterprises to complete the project
