\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 410 Glodon Company Limited(002410) )
The cloud transformation is coming to an end, and the general trend of successful cloud transformation is set. 1) The company is a leading enterprise in engineering cost, accounting for more than 60% of the market in China at the initial stage of listing. Since 2017, the company has officially implemented the transformation of cost products to cloud in China. After five years, the company's 29 business regions have fully entered the cloud transformation stage. Among them, the transformation rate and renewal rate of the transformation regions in 2020 and before exceeded 80%, and the transformation rate of the new transformation regions in 2021 exceeded 60% in the first year. By the end of 2021, the proportion of cloud revenue from the company's cost business has reached about 70%, and the general trend of successful transformation has been set. 2) Under SaaS mode, by converting one-time charges into subscription renewal fees, the company's revenue is significantly stable and basically decoupled from downstream volatility. Furthermore, SaaS mode can reduce the annual fee threshold, improve the difficulty of piracy, optimize the user experience and expand the company's user base; At the same time, value-added services can be further derived from business data on the cloud, and the ARPU value of the product is expected to continue to improve; Moreover, the model of advance collection will bring steady and growing cash flow to the company and support the further development of the company. As a result, the sustainability, certainty and growth of the company's cost software business will be greatly improved, the gap with competitive products will be gradually expanded, and the business will achieve a comprehensive transition.
The cost marketization reform was officially promoted, and the release of a variety of value-added services was accelerated. 1) For decades, quota has been an important basis for China's cost management. However, with the rapid development of market economy, the traditional budget quota management system is increasingly unable to meet the needs of the construction industry. In July 2020, driven by the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the market-oriented reform of project cost was officially launched. So far, pilot schemes have been released in Guangxi, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Hubei, Henan, Guangdong and other places. Under the general trend of market-oriented reform, how to form the pricing basis has become the main difficulty, the preparation of enterprises' own quota has become an inevitable trend, and the needs of market information consultation and historical data analysis need to be met urgently. 2) As the leader of cost software, the company has natural advantages in undertaking cost marketization business. On the one hand, the company launched the national standard enterprise standard integration platform in October 2021 to accurately solve the traditional pricing pain points and greatly improve work efficiency with the application mode of "pricing basis library + operation end integration"; At the same time, taking advantage of the trend, we cut into the field of cost management and released a new digital cost platform to effectively solve the problem of on-site and market linkage. On the other hand, the company has laid out its engineering information services for many years. Guangcai and other information products can effectively meet the material selection and pricing needs of customers. The index tools are also continuously optimized and continuously enabled the calculation and audit process. The compound growth rate of the company's engineering information services reached 56% from 2018 to 2021. 3) We expect that driven by the cost reform, a variety of value-added services such as market-oriented pricing platform, Guangcai information and index tools are expected to accelerate the release. At the same time, with the gradual release of the demand for fine cost management, the new digital cost platform will also develop by leaps and bounds.
Explore the capital construction cost market and subdivide the quantity calculation products, which are expected to be gradually launched. 1) Infrastructure construction is an important support for the China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) industry, accounting for 28% of the total output value of the construction industry in 2019, and the demand for cost digitization is also urgent. According to the data of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, compared with the income structure of China's engineering cost consulting business, we expect that the market space of infrastructure cost software may be about 40-50% of the field of housing construction, including many subdivided fields such as highway, municipal administration, electric power and water conservancy. 2) According to the company's announcement, most of the company's digital cost business in the past was still concentrated in the field of housing construction, and infrastructure calculation products such as municipal calculation have yet to be improved, which can not better meet the needs of customers for fine management. Since this year, the company has officially launched the research and development of infrastructure calculation products. Highway calculation and new market calculation are new products that can be expected. In the future, it is hoped that the products in the fields of design, cost and construction will form a linkage in the infrastructure business and better serve the digital transformation of the infrastructure industry.
SaaS Growth Logic continues to be verified, and cloud revenue is expected to be close to 10 billion. 1) Based on the above analysis, combined with public data and industrial information estimation, driven by the trends of basic software cloud transformation, gradual cost reform and continuous exploration in infrastructure, we expect the company's medium-term cloud revenue to reach 7-8.5 billion yuan. 2) According to the company's announcement, in 2022, the company's goal of signing a new cloud contract is 4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 30%. SaaS growth continues to be verified. In the long run, cloud computing can form information concentration through data on the cloud, the generated value-added services are expected to continue to improve the business ceiling, and the company's cost cloud revenue is expected to be close to 10 billion.
Maintain the "buy" rating. According to the key assumptions, the company is expected to realize the total apparent operating revenue of 6.954 billion yuan, 8.350 billion yuan and 9.912 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, and the apparent net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.043 billion yuan, 1.247 billion yuan and 1.431 billion yuan.
Risk tips: the promotion of cost added products is less than expected, the promotion of construction informatization is less than expected, the downstream industry is affected by macroeconomic fluctuations, assumptions and calculation or there is an error risk
