\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 636 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) )
The performance is the best in history, and Q4 is under periodic pressure: in 2021, the company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company were 14.57/4.23 billion, yoy + 51.1% / + 133.4%, and the performance is the best in history. In Q4, the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 3.81/580 billion respectively, yoy + 23.3% / - 3.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was under pressure, mainly due to the decline in glass prices and the rapid rise in raw material prices under the influence of the decline in real estate demand and the tightening of funds.
The price of float glass is expected to maintain a good level. Although the cost is under pressure, it is generally controllable. During the reporting period, the company sold 119 million heavy cases of float glass, yoy + 4.5%. It is estimated that the sales volume of Q4 in a single quarter is about 30 million heavy cases, and the sales volume remains stable as a whole. We estimate that the average price / cost / net profit of single heavy box of the original film in 21 years is about 104 / 51 / 33 yuan. Looking forward to 22 years, with the marginal easing of real estate policy, the demand side toughness still exists under the "guaranteed delivery"; At present, the capacity of production lines with kiln age of 8-10 years / more accounts for 13.7% / 14.1%. Cold repair of production lines with old age in 2022 may lead to supply contraction; We expect that the supply and demand level will remain in good dynamic balance. Under the high price of raw materials / energy, the company actively uses hedging and other methods to lock in the price of soda ash. We expect that the cost side of the company will be under pressure in 22 years, but it is generally controllable.
The capacity expansion of photovoltaic glass was accelerated, and the extension of industrial chain continued. The company has previously planned seven 1200t / D calendering production lines, and we expect to put into operation 1 / 6 production lines respectively in 22 / 23 years. The company announced a new 1200t / D project in Zhangzhou phase II, which is expected to be put into operation in August 23; At the same time, we will increase capital to build 4 new 1200t / D projects of Zhaotong photovoltaic, with a construction period of 3 years. We expect that 2 of them are expected to be put into operation in 23h2. With the steady progress of capacity construction, we expect that by the end of the year, the company will have a total capacity of 13000d / T photovoltaic glass outside China, and the capacity scale will rank among the first echelon of the industry. In addition to the production line conversion, the proposed PV glass production capacity of the company is 1200t/d large kilns, the scale effect is expected to further play, and the ton cost is expected to remain at the level of first-line manufacturers. In addition, the company announced that it plans to invest 1.08 billion to build a quartz sand production base in Zhaotong, Yunnan Province, actively layout silica sand mines, further extend the industrial chain and enhance its comprehensive competitiveness. We expect that the proportion of photovoltaic glass revenue of the company is expected to exceed 10% / 20% / 40% from 2022 to 2024, which is expected to become the second growth curve.
The growth of energy-saving glass is accelerated, and the capacity expansion of electronic glass / drug glass is expected to accelerate. In addition to architectural glass / photovoltaic glass, the company actively distributes emerging fields such as energy-saving glass / electronic glass / medicinal glass. In terms of energy-saving glass (large sector, hollow, etc.), the sales volume reached 32.6 million square meters in 21 years, yoy + 48.8%, mainly due to the commercial operation of Changxing energy conservation and Tianjin energy conservation during the reporting period. In terms of electronic glass, the company accelerated the construction of phase II project. With the active expansion of downstream channels, the market share is expected to increase steadily. In terms of medicinal glass, the company's Hunan Chenzhou 25t / D (one kiln and two lines) neutral borosilicate medicinal glass plain tube production line has entered commercial operation. It has announced to invest in the construction of phase II 40t / D production capacity project. With the gradual implementation of production capacity and the improvement of yield, medicinal glass is expected to gradually increase in volume.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years to be 39.0/46.5/5.62 billion (maintaining the original profit forecast), corresponding to 9 / 8 / 6 times of the current share price PE. Considering the long-term growth of the company, we maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials has risen sharply; The new production capacity is less than expected; The expansion of new products was less than expected.
