\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 709 Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) )
Investment logic
The electrolyte fluctuates periodically, and the new additive, the new lithium salt booster faucet, crosses the cycle. When the 6F cycle goes up, the electrolyte industry has a high proportion of self supply, which has great profit elasticity. When the cycle goes down, it further increases its share by virtue of cost customer advantage. We predict that the demand for electrolyte will be about 2.27 million tons in 2025. We believe that compared with the last cycle, the accelerated promotion of new additives and new lifsi will provide new profit growth points for electrolyte manufacturers and enhance product competitiveness, which will help to further smooth the cycle. The company still benefits from the upward cycle in the short term. According to the company's performance forecast, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 3.3 billion yuan from January to February 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 260%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 860 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 470%. In the long run, the company's new lithium salt lifsi process is leading with large capacity. It reserves lithium difluorophosphate, vinyl sulfate, VC, FEC and other products. After the release of capacity, it will inject new momentum into the company and further enhance the competitiveness of the company.
The electrolyte industry chain is broad and deep, the integrated & circular layout has large room for cost reduction, and the leading cost advantage is strengthened. Electrolyte solutes, solvents and additives have many categories and a large extension of the industrial chain, covering fluorine industrial chain, phosphorus industrial chain, lithium and other industrial chains. Each product has the synergy and recyclability of raw materials, and enterprises with in-depth integrated layout will have a large space to reduce costs. The company has a wide range of products, with layout in lithium element, fluorine industry chain and corresponding acid industry chain. The company raised, invested and overweight integrated production capacity in June 2021. The circular integrated industrial chain has been gradually constructed, and the liquid 6F and liquid lifsi processes are mastered at the same time. The single ton cost is expected to be further reduced compared with the crystal process.
Layout the cathode material iron phosphate to provide new increment. The company's 300000 ton (phase I) lithium iron phosphate capacity has been gradually increased, and plans to build a 100000 ton lithium iron battery recovery project, corresponding to 25000 tons of iron phosphate and 6000 tons of lithium carbonate. After being put into operation, it is expected to increase the company's revenue by more than 3 billion.
Investment advice and valuation
The company continues to deepen the integration in the field of electrolyte, and the layout of new lithium salt & additives is leading. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.2 billion yuan, 6.0 billion yuan and 6.7 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 5.4, 6.24 and 6.97 yuan, corresponding to PE of 17.8, 15.4 and 13.8 times, giving the company a valuation of 30 times in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 162 yuan. It will be covered for the first time and rated as "overweight".
Risk
Downstream demand is less than expected risk. Risk of deterioration of industry competition pattern. Risk of lifting the ban on restricted shares. Periodic fluctuation risk of lithium hexafluorophosphate. New customer expansion is less than expected risk. Production capacity construction is less than expected risk.
