\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 155 Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) )
Key investment points
Event:
The annual report of 2021 was released: the operating revenue was 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 70 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 50 million, with a year-on-year increase of 8%.
The category of automation equipment of new energy vehicles has been extended, and the contract liabilities have increased significantly, indicating that the orders on hand are full
Benefiting from the substantial growth of new energy vehicle sales, the company’s new energy vehicle automation equipment business revenue in 2021 was 1.03 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 179%. In addition to the module / pack automation equipment, new products such as the middle logistics line of the electric core have also been sold. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the automation equipment business of new energy vehicles was 26.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1pct, mainly due to the customization of non-standard products and the high cost of developing the first product. At the end of 2021, the company’s contract liabilities were 190 million yuan, a significant increase of 161% year-on-year, indicating that the orders on hand were full.
Acquire Ningde Dongheng machinery, cut into the structural parts of lithium battery module, and make a major breakthrough in the layout of new products
Ningde Dongheng machinery is mainly engaged in the structural parts of lithium battery modules (such as modules / pack shells), and was selected as the “specialized and special new” enterprise in Ningde City (2019) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) excellent supplier (2018). Dongheng mechanical lithium battery structural parts are expected to have upstream and downstream cooperation with the company’s new energy vehicle automation equipment, further improve the company’s production capacity, strengthen the binding with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and implement the two wheel drive development strategy of new energy vehicle equipment and products.
The grant of the equity incentive plan is completed, demonstrating the confidence of the management; The current share price is 19% lower than the grant price
In 2022, the equity incentive plan granted a total of 1 million restricted shares at a price of 108 yuan (the current stock price is 87 yuan), with a total of 148 directors, senior executives and business backbones of the target company.
New energy vehicle model group / pack equipment leader, five factors driving performance acceleration
The five factors are: 1) the growth of new energy vehicles; 2) Improve the automation rate of equipment; 3) Domestic substitution; 4) Globalization; 5) Breakthroughs in new products and new fields.
It is estimated that China’s module / pack line market will reach 11.3 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 19% from 2021 to 2025. Driving forces for growth: 1) the demand for lithium battery equipment continues to grow; 2) The automation rate of module / pack is improved.
From domestic substitution to global supply. 1) The company’s market share in China will be about 25% in 2020, and there is still room for further improvement. 2) New energy vehicles in Europe and the United States are growing rapidly. It is estimated that the market scale of European / American module / pack line will reach 8.3 billion yuan / 5.3 billion yuan respectively in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will reach 20% / 67%.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 270 / 470 / 640 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 290% / 73% / 36% respectively; The corresponding PE from 2022 to 2024 is 24 / 14 / 10 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips:
The industry competition intensified, the expansion of new products was less than expected, and the progress of major asset restructuring was less than expected.
