\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 62 Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) )
Event: Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) released the performance forecast: the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 in 2022 was 48-56 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25% – 45%; Deduct 44-51 million yuan of non parent company, with a year-on-year increase of 28.75% – 51.65%.
Key investment points:
Performance exceeded expectations. We expect that the real net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 is expected to approach the middle of the range of 48-56 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 35%. Under the Q1 epidemic, it is not easy for the performance to have this growth rate, and the performance is excellent, exceeding expectations.
Flexible employment continued the high boom. In terms of business, we expect: 1) Q1 flexible employment continues the high growth trend of last year (81% year-on-year in 2021h1; it is expected to increase by about 80% year-on-year in the whole year). However, considering the impact of Q1 Chinese New Year’s day and Spring Festival superimposed with the outbreak of epidemic in many places, the growth rate of Q1 flexible employment is expected to slow down slightly. 2) Affected by the epidemic in China, Q1 headhunting business is expected to maintain or slightly lower than the growth rate of 20% of the industry as a whole.
Technology empowerment drives high performance growth. The high performance growth comes from the company’s forward-looking overweight technology investment. On the one hand, we have continuously improved the layout of a variety of technical service products (vertical recruitment platform, human resources industry interconnection platform, regional talent brain platform, talent to cloud, etc.) and cultivated diversified new performance growth points; On the other hand, the main business of technology empowerment is flexible employment, the expansion of offline services of headhunting and RPO, and the coordinated development of online platform and SaaS product business.
The development momentum of overseas business is higher than expected, and the growth rate may be higher than that in China. It is expected that the overseas business of Q1 will continue the momentum of rapid recovery and accelerated development of 21h2, with higher prosperity, and the growth rate is expected to be higher than that of Chinese business.
Profit forecast and investment rating. We are optimistic that the company’s flexible employment will continue to enjoy a high boom. The short-term performance fluctuations brought by technology investment will not affect our core judgment on Kerui space, competitiveness and rapid business growth in recent years. The business growth momentum in 2022 is expected. It is estimated that the revenue in 2021 / 2022 / 2023 will be 6.999 billion yuan / 10.156 billion yuan / 14.679 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 78.0% / 45.1% / 44.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 250 million yuan / 325 million yuan / 419 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34.2% / 30.0% / 29.0%. The corresponding dynamic PE: 31 / 24 / 19x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: manage boundary and bottleneck risks; Cash flow risk caused by advance: business fluctuation risk of key customers; Brain drain risk of headhunting consultants; The risk of recurrent outbreaks.
