\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 104 Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) )
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) 2022 in March, the production and sales volume were 419721 / 443045 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of – 15.92% / – 10.11% and a month on month ratio of + 9.91% / + 37.61% respectively. Among them, the production and sales volume of SAIC passenger cars in March were 61738 / 62212 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.54% / + 7.25% and a month on month increase of – 4.01% / – 3.41% respectively; The production and sales of SAIC Volkswagen in March were 108477 / 110018 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of – 1.40% / – 2.21% and a month on month ratio of + 11.31% / + 21.43% respectively; SAIC GM produced and sold 88703 / 88523 vehicles in March, with a year-on-year increase of – 31.30% / – 31.42% and a month on month increase of + 18.10% / + 16.47% respectively; SAIC GM Wuling sold 130586 / 150000 vehicles in March, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.85% / 0.00% and a month on month increase of + 12.34% / + 127.27% respectively.
Under the influence of the epidemic, the overall wholesale of the group was – 10.11% year-on-year, and the performance of new energy vehicles was better. 1) Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) overall production batch was – 15.92% / – 10.11% year-on-year, mainly due to the shortage of chips and the impact of the epidemic. In terms of sub brands, SAIC achieved positive growth year-on-year, with the best performance. In March, Zhiji l7pro officially announced the selling price of 408800 yuan and started batch delivery in the near future; Feifan R7 prefabricated mass production vehicle was successfully offline, and Zhiji automobile and Feifan automobile accelerated the pace of brand improvement. On a month on month basis, SAIC GM Wuling’s wholesale in March was + 127.27% year-on-year, with the best performance. 2) Sales of new energy vehicles continued to perform well. In March, the production batch of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) new energy vehicles achieved positive growth on a month on month basis, with sales of 74500 vehicles, with a month on month basis of + 19.61% / + 64.60% respectively. Hongguang minievgameboy blind orders more than 30000 orders in 30 days; SAIC Volkswagen’s “ID. electric family” 2022 is newly launched and upgraded with intelligent functions such as intelligent parking aid. We expect to further boost the sales performance of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) new energy vehicles. 3) Exports performed better year-on-year. In March, SAIC exported 50300 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 4.95% / – 10.28% respectively. The overall sales volume of SAIC overseas in Q1 exceeded 172000, a year-on-year increase of + 44.9%. Among them, the global sales volume of Mg brand Q1 is 135000, ranking among the top 10 single brands in 18 countries around the world, such as Australia, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. At present, SAIC has formed a “50000 vehicle level” regional market in Europe, Australia and New Zealand, the Americas, the Middle East, ASEAN and South Asia.
March Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) overall stock removal: in March Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) enterprise stock in the current month was – 23324 (compared with February), SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC GM, SAIC passenger car and SAIC GM Wuling stock in the current month were – 1541, + 180, – 474 and – 19414 (compared with February).
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect that with the company’s Zhiji + new r-standard high-end intelligent electric brand opening up the new energy market and constantly exploring overseas markets, Volkswagen and GM are expected to see the bottom and stabilize. We maintain the expectation that the net profit attributable to the parent company from Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) 2021 to 2023 is 25 / 262 / 27.1 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 2.14/2.24/2.32 yuan and PE of 7.9/7.6/7.3 times. Maintain Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) “buy” rating.
Risk warning: epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand was lower than expected.
