\u3000\u30 Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.Ltd(003003) 58 Truking Technology Limited(300358) )
Key investment points
Investment logic: 1) the prosperity of the industry is high, and the domestic substitution process has been started. The rapid development of biological drugs in China has brought the demand for equipment and consumables. After several years of cultivation, under the background of the extension of supply chain cycle and the improvement of self-control awareness caused by the epidemic, with the improvement of product capacity of Chinese enterprises, the process of domestic substitution has been fully started.
2) truking's product and channel capabilities are gradually enhanced, and its industry position is more stable. Product capability: it has been deeply engaged in the pharmaceutical equipment industry for more than 20 years. With the continuous improvement of manufacturing capacity over the years, the product line has been gradually enriched. It has been in a leading position in the traditional pharmaceutical field. Romaco, which has a good reputation among the world's famous pharmaceutical enterprises, can realize good coordination at home and abroad. 3) The whole industrial chain layout of biopharmaceutical field is expected to become the second growth curve of the company. The company has further realized the layout of the whole industrial chain in the field of equipment and consumables for biological drug production, and enjoys the same advantages in the original equipment business β At the same time of dividend, biological medicine equipment and consumables are created for the company α。 Under the trend of disposable products, the proportion of consumables increases, which is expected to reduce the industry cycle attribute and create a sustainable growth curve for enterprises.
Industry level: China's biopharmaceutical industry is booming, opening the ceiling of pharmaceutical equipment industry. Before the rise of biological drugs, pharmaceutical equipment was mostly mechanical equipment. Among them, pharmaceutical packaging mechanical equipment accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 55.7%, followed by API equipment, accounting for 25.4%. The growth rate of the overall industry is expected to be equivalent to that of fixed asset investment in the pharmaceutical industry. The equipment and consumables for the production of biological drugs based on fermentation have been standardized in Europe and America. Unlike the pharmaceutical equipment based on mechanical equipment in the field of chemical drugs and traditional Chinese medicine, the equipment and consumables for the production of biological drugs have higher technical barriers and higher added value of products. We estimate that the market space of equipment consumables brought by the production of biological drugs in China is 70.1 billion yuan, including 38.3 billion yuan of consumables. The larger market space of consumables in the field of biological drug production is enough to break the original cycle attribute of the industry. Since 2017, China's biopharmaceutical fermentation capacity has increased significantly, and the equipment and consumables market has expanded rapidly. While European and American enterprises seize the market, they have cultivated localized talents and domestic enterprises, and domestic products have realized "from scratch". Under the trend of covid-19 epidemic, the supply cycle has been extended, and the trend localization of biopharmaceutical production equipment and consumables has just begun, which will fully benefit relevant enterprises.
Truking's product and channel capabilities are gradually enhanced, and its industry position is more stable. Product capability: at the product line level, the company has expanded its traditional business from water needle filling, packaging and other businesses to solid preparation equipment. After 2020, the company began to layout biopharmaceutical equipment and consumables, and the product structure has basically completed the transformation from single machine or linkage line to providing overall solutions for medical equipment. In terms of technology, the acquired subsidiaries are leading enterprises in related fields in the industry, and the newly established subsidiaries also introduce high-quality technical teams. The technical teams of subsidiaries related to biopharmaceutical equipment and consumables are from well-known experts who have worked in the industry for many years, and their product performance is worth looking forward to. Channel capability: China has covered most pharmaceutical enterprises and established good cooperative relations; Romaco, which has a good reputation among the world's famous pharmaceutical enterprises, can achieve good coordination outside China. With the improvement of product quality and after-sales service ability, the company will increase the sales of overseas business, and the overseas business of the headquarters is expected to increase significantly.
The layout of biopharmaceutical equipment and consumables is perfect, which is expected to become the second growth curve of the company. From 2020 to 2022, the company gradually established subsidiaries such as truking Yuanchuang, truking microsphere, truking siyoute and truking siweikang, and gradually improved the layout of equipment and consumables related to the industrialization of biological drugs. The company's Chutian Yuanchuang (mainly engaged in ultrafiltration equipment, on-line liquid distribution system, bioreactor and other biopharmaceutical core equipment, acting chromatographic filler cellufine) ™ Series products); Truking siyoute (disposable products, such as disposable biological reaction bag, liquid preparation bag, liquid storage bag and its membrane materials); Truking microspheres (the main layout products are microspheres, filler media, etc.); Chutiansiweikang (the proposed main business is to provide equipment, consumables and accessories related to cell processing system). The layout of the whole industrial chain of biopharmaceutical equipment and consumables of the company has been basically improved. With the support of the original channels and the rapid development of biological drugs, the relevant products of the company are expected to be in large quantities quickly, creating the second growth curve for the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: from the perspective of the trend of the company's contract liabilities, the company's orders in non covid-19 fields have also increased significantly, and the import substitution effect in some fields is significant. Taking into account the industry trend and the layout of the company's business lines, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 5.196/62.44/7.590 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 45.29% / 20.17% / 21.57%, Considering the company's various expenses and other influencing factors, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 534 / 677 / 872 million from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 166.1% / 26.9% / 28.8%. With reference to the valuation of similar companies in the industry and the company's own historical valuation, the company is given a PE valuation of 25-30 times in 2022, which is covered for the first time, and a "buy" rating is given.
Risk warning: the industry boom is at risk of decline; The growth of new orders is less than expected; The volume of new products is less than expected.
