\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
Event: on the evening of April 8, the company issued an announcement on foreign investment. The company plans to invest 23.1 billion yuan in the construction of high-performance new material integration project of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) Penglai Industrial Park. The project construction funds are raised in the form of self owned funds and bank loans. The construction period of the project is planned from 2022 to 2025, and it is expected to be put into operation in June 2024.
Comments:
Invest in the construction of Penglai base, expand production capacity and improve the layout of industrial chain. The Penglai project of the company plans to cover an area of about 3310 Mu and will build 900000 T / a propane dehydrogenation, 500000 T / a polyether, 400000 T / a pochp, 300000 t / a polypropylene, 300000 t / a EO, 300000 t / a EOD, acrylic acid and ester (160000 T / A acrylic acid, 160000 T / a butyl acrylate, 20000 t / a octyl acrylate), 200000 t / a carbonate, 30000 T / a emollient, air separation and other devices and supporting utilities and auxiliary facilities. By the end of 2021, the company has a polyether production capacity of 860000 T / A, the polyurethane industrial chain integration ethylene project of Yantai Industrial Park has a total production capacity of 2.5 million T / A, and the PO / AE integration project has a total production capacity of 1.98 million T / A. After the Penglai project is put into operation, the company’s production capacity of petrochemical products will be further expanded, providing a solid foundation for the layout and extension of downstream products. In addition, the capacity of EOD, acrylic acid and ester, carbonate, emollient and other products designed by Penglai Industrial Park will further improve the layout of the company’s downstream products, and the competitiveness of the company’s whole industrial chain is expected to continue to improve, consolidating the company’s leading position in the chemical industry.
Yantai and Penglai double bases cooperate, with outstanding integration advantages. By the end of 2021, the company has six bases and factories in Yantai, Ningbo, Sichuan, Fujian, Zhuhai and Hungary. The production bases in Ningbo, Yantai and Zhuhai are still expanding and optimizing. The projects of Fujian base and Meishan base have been promoted in an orderly manner, and the company’s integrated base chart shows a multi-point expansion state. The newly planned Penglai industrial park includes Petrochemical upstream and downstream production capacity, with outstanding advantages of industrial chain integration. Meanwhile, in terms of regional location, Penglai Industrial Park is about 40 kilometers away from Yantai Industrial Park. The company plans to realize the interconnection of main raw materials through LPG, ethylene and other transmission pipelines, integrate and share the industrial chain advantages of their respective parks, and improve the synergy efficiency of upstream and downstream. In the future, with the gradual production of various production capacities in Penglai Industrial Park, the integration construction level of the company will be further improved, and the scale cost advantage is expected to be further revealed, which is conducive to the more stable competitive barrier of the company as a chemical leader.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the planning and construction of Penglai project will further improve the company’s integrated industrial chain layout and enhance the company’s overall profitability and competitive strength. As the project has not been completed yet, we will not consider the corresponding performance increment for the time being. We maintain the company’s profit forecast from 2022 to 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 25.7 billion yuan, 27.6 billion yuan and 30.1 billion yuan respectively, and the converted EPS will be 8.19, 8.80 and 9.60 yuan / share respectively. The current share price corresponds to about 11 times of PE in 2022. We maintain the company’s “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the project construction progress is less than expected, the project income is less than expected, and the price of raw materials and products fluctuates.
