\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Event overview
The company released the production and sales express in March 2022: the wholesale sales volume in March was 101000, with a year-on-year increase of – 8.9% and a month on month increase of + 42.6%. The output of 104000 vehicles in March was – 5.5% year-on-year and + 47.2% month on month.
By brand, in March, the wholesale sales volume of Haval brand was 55000, with a year-on-year increase of – 18.8% and a month on month increase of + 29.9%; The wholesale sales volume of wey brand was 5000 units, a year-on-year increase of +36.1% and a month on month increase of +7.3%; The wholesale sales volume of pickup trucks was 18000, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.1% and a month on month increase of + 58.6%; The wholesale sales volume of Euler brand was 14000, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.3% and a month on month increase of + 127.8%; The wholesale sales volume of tank brand was 9000, with a year-on-year increase of + 78.3% and a month on month increase of + 37.9%.
Analysis and judgment:
Production and sales improved month on month, and all brands grew together
The production and sales of the company increased rapidly in March, and the impact of core shortage was gradually alleviated. In March, the company’s production exceeded sales, the production capacity was gradually released, and all brands ushered in great improvement. Specifically:
Haval brand: the mainstream SUV has a stable position and is accelerating towards intelligence. In 2022q1, the cumulative sales volume was 167000, with a year-on-year increase of – 25.1%. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of Haval H6 was 77000, a year-on-year increase of – 32.0%. The cumulative sales volume of Haval dogs was 25000, a year-on-year increase of + 8.4%. Haval beast (flagship SUV of new technology) has sold more than 26000 vehicles in the four months since its listing, with a brilliant sales performance.
Wey brand: PHEV version is accelerated. In 2022q1, the cumulative sales volume was 14000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 22.3%. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of star model latte DHT is 6529. Mocha dht-phev opened the high-end road of Wei brand, with sales of more than 500 vehicles in March. This year, many models of Wei brand will be equipped with PHEV version as standard. We believe that the demand for high-end electric intelligence is growing rapidly, and the high-end of independent brands is expected to take the lead in seizing the market. At the same time, the breakthrough of hybrid technology supports PHEV to quickly replace fuel vehicles in low-energy cities, and the demand is expected to continue to increase.
Euler brand: ASP is expected to accelerate the upward trend. In 2022q1, the cumulative sales volume was 34000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 10.0%. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of good cats was 19000, a year-on-year increase of + 239.6%. Since March, 2022 Euler cats have been ordered, with a price range of 127900157900 yuan. The appearance color and intelligent configuration options have been upgraded again. The company’s product positioning is accurate, which is expected to drive the demand.
Tank brand: Tank 500 will be delivered soon. The cumulative sales volume of tank brand 2022q1 was 26000, a year-on-year increase of + 79.8%. The tank 500 has been listed in March and will be delivered in mid and late April. It is expected to drive the volume and price of the tank series and drive the overall profit of the company.
Great Wall pickup: fashion, business and leisure. In 2022q1, the cumulative sales volume was 43000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of – 27.7%. Among them, the total sales of Great Wall guns exceeded 33000. “Fashion commercial pickup” Diamond gun was also officially launched on March 22. This year, the Great Wall cannon will make full use of the two major categories of fashion, business and leisure, and continue to cultivate the Chinese and overseas markets.
High end intelligence leads hard core technology to accelerate output
In 2022q1, lemon, tank and coffee Intelligent Platforms accounted for 70.4%. Relying on three core technology platforms, the company has achieved breakthroughs in power performance and full speed efficiency. At the same time, the coffee intelligent platform is fully enabled in intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit, accelerating the vehicle to intelligent electrification.
The output of hard core technology is accelerated, and the intelligent penetration rate is continuously improved. In 2022q1, the company’s intelligent models accounted for 84.5%. With the modular R & D and production of the three platforms, the development cycle of new models will be greatly shortened, driving the output of core technologies and accelerating the improvement of intelligent penetration.
Investment advice
The promotion of the company’s new products outside China is progressing smoothly, a new cycle of intelligent electrification has been opened, the proportion of new energy intelligent models has increased rapidly, the leading position of luxury has become clearer, and the non vehicle business income is expected to accelerate the release. We are optimistic about the company’s simultaneous increase in volume and price this year and maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 1920.5/2567.4/330.99 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 10.6/156.2/20.02 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 1.09/1.69/2.17 yuan, the corresponding closing price on April 8, 2022 will be 26.34 yuan / share, and the PE will be 24 / 16 / 12 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The impact of lack of core is higher than expected; Downside risk of auto market; The market competition of wey, salon, haver and other brands intensifies, and the sales volume is lower than expected; The progress of going to sea was less than expected.
