\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 422 Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002422) )
Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002422) issue the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the operating revenue was 17.277 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.94%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.103 billion yuan, an increase of 273 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.94%; The non net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.038 billion, with a growth rate of 65.14%, realizing eps0.5% 78 yuan.
In 2021, the company's overall performance growth slightly exceeded expectations, and the effect of product structure optimization gradually appeared. In 2021, although some parts were still affected by the fluctuation of the epidemic, the company made every effort to expand the market of infusion and non infusion preparations, and the operating revenue and profit increased year-on-year. Due to the impact of the epidemic on the production and operation of Yili CHUANNING in the fourth quarter, the company continued to vigorously promote innovative R & D, and the R & D expenses increased year-on-year. In 2021, the R & D investment was 1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.68%, accounting for 10.42% of the sales revenue.
In terms of sectors, the rapid volume of new drugs provides the main driving force for revenue, while other sectors have increased steadily.
Infusion sector: the market pattern is gradually stable, and the product structure and medical terminals contribute to the growth power. In 2021, the overall sales of infusion products recovered significantly compared with the previous year, realizing an operating revenue of 8.084 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.99%..
Non infusion drugs sector: the investment in core products was strengthened, and the overall growth rate of the sector was fast. The annual sales revenue was 2.376 billion yuan (+ 11.37%). Kangfuxin Liquid increased the market promotion coverage of cinema channels, and the sales revenue increased by 4.23% year-on-year; The plastic water needle continued to expand the terminal market coverage, and the sales revenue increased by 30.57% year-on-year.
The new drug sector grew rapidly and contributed mainly to the company's revenue: in 2021, the new drug sector achieved a revenue of 3.251 billion yuan (+ 19.37%), aishida (+ 331.06%), Duoyue (+ 187.47%), domengjie (+ 87.54%), shuliping (+ 149.55%) and shubian (180.18%), which provided a driving force for the company's revenue.
Antibiotic intermediates and APIs: the overall external operating revenue was 3.174 billion yuan (- 9.54%). The epidemic has an impact on the production and operation of Q4 in Yili CHUANNING, Yili CHUANNING and its children
The company achieved an operating revenue of 3.232 billion yuan (- 11.44%), and its net profit decreased by 50.34% year-on-year. Sorting out the company's long-term investment logic: the company still chose high R & D investment in difficult times. From the approved products from 2019 to 2021, generic drugs have gradually entered the harvest period. The company's long-term logic remains unchanged, the large infusion industry has been upgraded, the structure has been adjusted, and the profitability of Kelun has increased. China's environmental protection comes first, and CHUANNING's full capacity and profits have improved. Imitation leads innovation and provides power for the high growth of the company's future performance. According to the company's 2021 annual report, innovative drugs are also gradually entering the harvest period, and we look forward to the promotion of more innovative varieties in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation. The company has gradually recovered from the impact of the epidemic in 2021. The achievement of generic drugs further promotes the achievement of high-speed growth. The continuous follow-up of follow-up varieties will give the company continued driving force for revenue, and the pace of transformation of the company is more and more stable. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.25 billion yuan, 1.46 billion yuan and 1.71 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 13.7%, 16.5% and 17.3% respectively, EPS of 0.88 yuan, 1.02 yuan and 1.20 yuan respectively, and PE of 19x, 16x and 14x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: risk of industrial policy change; The risk that the CHUANNING project fails to meet the expectations; Risk of lagging behind in the progress of generic drug conformity evaluation; Risk of failure in new drug research and development.
