\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 410 Glodon Company Limited(002410) )
Real estate and infrastructure are the most important downstream of the company, and the historical income of the company is related to the prosperity of the industry Glodon Company Limited(002410) downstream customer structure: 1) cost: according to the statistics of customer structure according to the contract caliber, real estate developers account for about 10%. 2) Construction: customers are mainly construction units, most of which are public buildings in the field of real estate construction, but commercial real estate development also accounts for a certain proportion.
Historical relevance: Historically, the growth rate of the company's income has a certain correlation with the prosperity of China's real estate industry and the newly started area of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) industry. Therefore, we should analyze Glodon Company Limited(002410) from the perspective of the whole construction industry.
The prosperity of the construction industry is affected not only by the real estate industry, but also by infrastructure. The recent relaxation of real estate regulation in some areas and the important position of infrastructure in steady growth all indicate that the prosperity of real estate and infrastructure is expected to be repaired. Therefore, we calculate the impact of relevant changes on Glodon Company Limited(002410) from the perspectives of real estate and infrastructure.
Glodon Company Limited(002410) revenue accounts for an increasing proportion of downstream. 1) Real estate: Glodon Company Limited(002410) income accounts for the proportion of real estate development investment, which is an important embodiment of the relationship between the company and downstream. With the improvement of the company's products and the improvement of market competitiveness, the relevant proportion has increased continuously, reaching 0.03-0.04% in recent three years. 2) Capital construction: referring to the above calculation, the proportion of Glodon Company Limited(002410) income in capital construction development investment has reached 0.02-0.03% in recent three years.
Sensitivity analysis: under the three scenarios, the revenue increment brought by the recovery of the downstream in 2022 will be 600-1.5 billion yuan, with an increase of about 11-27%. Since the company did not disclose the proportion of downstream real estate and infrastructure, and there is a possibility of improving the prosperity of China's real estate and infrastructure, we made a unified consideration and conducted a sensitivity analysis. Conclusion: under the three circumstances, the revenue increment of Glodon Company Limited(002410) 2022 will be 600-1.5 billion yuan, with an increase of about 11% - 27%. Therefore, the recovery of the downstream has an obvious boosting effect on the Glodon Company Limited(002410) demand side.
The marginal improvement policies of real estate and infrastructure are gradually implemented, and the recovery of the downstream can be expected. 1) Real estate: the central level supports meeting the reasonable housing demand, and some cities at the local level adjust the purchase restriction policy. At present, many cities in China have begun to adjust the real estate regulation. 2) Infrastructure: as an important part of the steady growth policy, it is expected to continue to work. In the 2022 government work report, it is proposed to "carry out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule, build key water conservancy projects, comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network, important energy bases and facilities", "strengthen the infrastructure construction of the county, start the rural construction action, strengthen the planning guidance, and strengthen the infrastructure construction such as water, electricity, gas, letter and mail".
Investment suggestion: Glodon Company Limited(002410) is a leading enterprise in the field of engineering cost. The SaaS transformation value of cost business is prominent. The digital construction business is expected to become a new core growth momentum of the company in the future. The design, digital supply and procurement and other businesses are gradually promoted to verify their development potential. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 22-24 years will be 6.912/83.67/10.182 billion yuan. According to the calculation of segment valuation method, the company's reasonable valuation is 91.6 billion yuan, which is obviously undervalued. At the same time, the long-term value and growth space of cloud leader are worth looking forward to, so it maintains the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the industry competition intensifies and the product R & D progress is less than expected; Affected by the epidemic, the recovery of real estate and infrastructure was less than expected.
