\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 603 Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) )
Events
On April 8, Guangdong alliance Qingkailing and other Chinese patent medicines were publicized on the results of the proposed selection for centralized volume procurement. The alternative price of Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) Lianhua Qingwen granules was 2.3295 yuan / bag.
On April 9, Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) issued an announcement. After the proposal on external donation was considered and approved by the board of directors of the company, the company decided to donate 50 million yuan of Lianhua anti plague materials to Shanghai through the Red Cross Foundation of China. Previously, the company has donated 11 million Lianhua Qingwen capsules to Shanghai and 5 million Lianhua Qingwen capsules to Jilin.
Comments
Lianhua Qingwen is the drug recommended by covid-19. Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, Lianhua Qingwen, as one of the "three drugs and three parties", has been included in the covid-19 diagnosis and treatment scheme from the fourth edition to the ninth edition, and is recommended for observation, light and ordinary covid-19 patients.
Lianhua Qingwen centralized mining decreased by 1%, and the price reduction was mild and higher than expected. The highest valid bid price of Lianhua Qingwen granule is 3.75 yuan / bag, and the national lowest bid price and national median bid price in recent one year are 2.35 yuan / bag. Based on the national median bid price, the price reduction of Lianhua Qingwen granule is 1%.
Lianhua Qingwen still has room for sustained growth. Lianhua Qingwen reached 4.2 billion yuan in sales in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 150%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the epidemic situation in China was repeated, and the sales of cold drugs in some urban pharmacies were under control. Under this influence, it is expected that the sales of Lianhua Qingwen will decline slightly in 2021. From 2022 to 2023, it is expected that overseas market volume, government and enterprise procurement, drug use growth of patients with mild and moderate diseases in China during the observation period, and potential self provided demand of residents will become the new growth points of Lianhua Qingwen.
The innovative drug policy of traditional Chinese medicine continues to be favorable. The three major cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products of the company continue to grow, the second-line products grow at a high speed, and there are abundant R & D pipelines. The long-term growth of the company can be expected.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We maintain the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 101.3/119.4/14 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 13.9/16.7/2.01 billion yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to 47 / 39 / 32 times of PE from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk of epidemic change, the risk of centralized purchase of Chinese patent medicine, the risk of product sales falling short of expectations, the risk of policy supervision such as medical insurance, and the risk of new drug R & D progress falling short of expectations.
