\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 88 Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) )
The company announced that it plans to acquire 55% equity of Longtai medical. According to the company's announcement, the company plans to use 730 million yuan in cash to acquire 55% of the equity of Longtai medical (the latter's net profit in 2021 is 86 million yuan, and we calculate that the purchase price corresponds to about 8.4 times of PE in 2021). 1) The target company is Longtai medical and its wholly-owned subsidiary Xi'an longtem. Other subsidiaries not related to high-end dressing business will be stripped before the delivery date of this transaction. 2) The two sides reached an agreement that the core team members of Longtai promised to remain in the company within 5 years after the completion of the transaction, and Jianwei appointed some management to assist in the business. 3) The performance commitment period is five years (20222026). If the total non deduction performance of Longtai merger exceeds 475 million yuan within five years, it will steadily continue to acquire all the remaining equity of the target company according to the corresponding valuation after five years.
Longtai is a leading enterprise in high-end dressing in China, which is expected to help consolidate its leading position steadily. 1) Longtai medical is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of high-end medical dressings, with a revenue of 355 million yuan / net profit of 86 million yuan in 2021. The compound growth rate of revenue / net profit in the past four years (20182021) was 27% / 46% respectively. 2) According to the official website of Longtai, its products mainly include nine series: puncture series, functional wound dressings and stoma care. ① at present, the annual output of dressings is 300 million pieces, and 80% of the revenue in 2021 is high-end dressing sales. ② it has strong R & D strength and has obtained more than 50 relevant patents, which is expected to help Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) further develop the high-end dressing business market. 3) Its production mode is mainly OEM (mainly sold to dozens of countries such as Europe and the United States) and operates its own brand innomed in China. We believe that it is expected to form complementarity and synergy at the channel level and stability.
Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) revenue / performance decline under the high base in 2021. In 2021, the steady business scale is expected to shrink year-on-year under the high base: 1) in 2021, the company's revenue is 7.9 ~ 8.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 35% in 2020 / a year-on-year increase of about 80% in 2019; The performance was RMB 1.20 ~ 1.35 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 65% in 2020 + / a year-on-year increase of about 135% in 2019. 2) Among them, the revenue from consumer goods business was 4-4.2 billion yuan, a healthy year-on-year increase of 14% ~ 19%; The revenue of medical business was 3.9-4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50% + in 2020, mainly due to the high sales price of medical protection products when the epidemic broke out in 2020, while the epidemic stabilized and the product volume and price returned to normal in 2021, so the company's medical business shrank somewhat.
2022 is expected to enter a healthy growth channel. At present, the high base caused by the epidemic has passed. Looking forward to 2022, Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) is expected to usher in healthy growth: 1) the expansion of medical business channels is effective, and the "winner steady" private brand has developed rapidly. By the end of 2021h1, it has been stationed in nearly 11W pharmacies and 3000 + hospitals in China. According to our tracking judgment, the current demand for the company's medical business in China is good, and the medical business in China is expected to grow positively in Q1. 2) In the cotton era, the product end is diversified and new. We judge that the offline consumer goods business may be impacted since Q1. The company grasps the private domain traffic and is expected to help the development of e-commerce.
Investment advice. We are optimistic about the potential for the coordinated development of medical treatment and consumption in the medium and long term. The short-term business of the company fluctuates due to changes in environmental factors. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 1.30/16.1/1.98 billion respectively, corresponding to 16 times of PE in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations, which was unfavorable to the terminal sales of consumer goods; Market competition intensifies risks; Category expansion risk; Overseas business expansion is less than expected; Foreign exchange fluctuation risk.
