\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 636 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) )
Event overview. The company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved a revenue of 14.572 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51.12%; The operating profit was 4.914 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 136.30%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.233 billion yuan, an increase of 133.38% over the same period last year; The corresponding Q4 revenue was 3.807 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.26%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 557 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 3.79%. The results of the annual report basically fell near the median value of the pre increase announcement in the early stage, in line with expectations.
The annual scale profit increased greatly, and the price of the industry was under pressure and the cost rose in the single quarter of 21q4. The annual revenue and net interest rate increased significantly, mainly from the first three quarters. The price of glass rose month by month in the first three quarters, and the price of white glass once reached more than 150 or even 160 yuan per box. In the fourth quarter, the downstream real estate enterprises faced the dual capital pressure of difficult payment collection and difficult financing. In the peak season of 2021, the whole industrial chain was greatly affected. The glass industry showed a situation of high supply, high inventory and weak demand. Combined with the decline of float glass price in Q4 and the impact of multiple factors of raw material cost (it is estimated that the gross profit of Q4 decreased by more than 30 yuan / box month on month), the net profit of Q4 company was only 557 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.79%. It is estimated that the annual average net profit per heavy container is about 30 yuan, and it is estimated that it is about 10 yuan in the fourth quarter.
The annual output of the original film increased by 4.5% year-on-year, and the volume and price of deep processing increased simultaneously. In 2021, the volume and price of high-quality float glass rose simultaneously, and a total of 118.91 million boxes of high-quality float glass were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 5.14 million boxes (+ 4.5% YoY). The average selling price of each box was 104 yuan, an increase of 40% at the same time; Energy saving building glass was vigorously promoted, with sufficient production and sales orders throughout the year, and the sales volume reached 32.6 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of + 48.81%. The average price is estimated to be about 62 yuan, with an increase of 22% and the gross profit margin increased by about 8.8 percentage points to 42%, reflecting the supply chain advantages of integrated enterprise deep processing business. It is expected that the demand for energy-saving glass will continue to grow steadily in 2022, benefiting from relevant policies. Under the background of real estate relaxation, the demand for flat glass will return to a stable level in 2022, the rhythm will be significantly better than that in the first half of the year, and the glass price will gradually rise month on month.
The rising star of photovoltaic glass is expected to become a new growth pole of the company. With the further improvement of the permeability of double glass modules, the demand for photovoltaic glass will increase significantly. The company selected the photovoltaic glass track. Up to now, the company has five single track 1200td photovoltaic glass production lines under construction. This time, the new construction plan of 4 1200t / D Yunnan Zhaotong has been announced, superimposed on the previously announced 2 1200t / D production expansion plan of Malaysia and the second 1200t / D plan of Dongshan County, Zhangzhou. If all of them are completed, the company will have 12 large lines with a total production capacity of more than 10000 t / D, plus part of the production capacity, The overall long-term scale will enter the top three in China and the first echelon.
The medical electronic glass business division was promoted in an orderly manner. The company disclosed that Fujian Qibin Medical Materials Technology Co., Ltd. lost 25.82 million yuan (minority shareholders accounted for 32.16%), and Liling Qibin Electronic Glass Co., Ltd. lost 19.15 million yuan (minority shareholders accounted for 27.37%). At present, the company has one high aluminum electronic glass production line under construction and one neutral borosilicate medicinal glass production line under construction (two neutral borosilicate medicinal glass production lines under construction), which is expected to achieve a breakthrough in technology and market share in the two high-end markets of medicine and electronics in the future; After more than 10 years of development, the company has become a large glass enterprise group integrating research, development, production and sales of silica sand raw materials, glass and glass deep processing, photovoltaic new material glass, electronic glass and pharmaceutical glass.
Investment advice
Lower the price assumption of float glass and raise the cost assumption, but at the same time, raise the sales forecast of photovoltaic glass from 2022 to 2024. Accordingly, the revenue forecast for 2022 / 2023 was lowered to 16.31/21.49 billion yuan (Original: 18.68/24.37 billion yuan), the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 was lowered to 3.60/4.34 billion yuan (Original: 4.63/5.53 billion yuan), the EPS in 2022 / 2023 was adjusted to 1.34/1.62 yuan (Original: 1.73/2.06 yuan), the income forecast for 2024 was increased by 25.85 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company was predicted to be 4.996 billion yuan, and the EPS in 20222024 was increased 34 / 1.62/1.86 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 13.48 yuan on April 8, 10.06/8.34/7.25xpe. Keep the valuation of 12xpe unchanged in 2022 and reduce the target price to 16.08 yuan (Original: 20.76 yuan). Considering that the H2 glass industry may gradually recover with the completion of the real estate, and the growth of new businesses such as photovoltaic glass is good, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The demand is lower than expected, the cost is higher than expected, the production progress is slower than expected, and there are systemic risks.
