\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 959 Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) )
The month on month improvement trend continued, and the income growth returned to positive in the fourth quarter Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) 2021 achieved revenue of 3.606 billion / – 1.46%, net profit attributable to parent company of 283 million / – 33.81%, and non net profit attributable to parent company of 258 million / – 34.84%. Among them, Q4 revenue is 1.242 billion / + 6.83%, the net profit attributable to the parent company is 94 million / – 11.13%, and the non net profit attributable to the parent company is 88 million / – 7.05%. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 6 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. Affected by the industry and the high base in the same period, the company’s operation is under pressure, and its performance has declined due to the impact of raw materials and industry competition. However, the company’s operation in the third and fourth quarters has improved significantly month on month, and the subsequent performance is expected.
The small electricity consumption of mother and child care doubled, and the performance of various categories improved in the second half of the year. Kwai tiktok is facing greater pressure on the industry. The company is actively changing, increasing product research and marketing input, developing new channels such as jitter and fast hand, and constantly introducing new products, and continuously optimizing manufacturing management and internal business efficiency. Since 2021h2, the performance of most categories has improved: in 2021, the company’s income from cooker kitchen appliances increased by 12.6% to 770 million, and H2 increased by 15.2%; Western style kitchen electricity revenue increased by 1.8% to 610 million, and H2 increased by 3.7%; The revenue of electric kitchen appliances decreased by 31.0% to 600million yuan, and the decrease of H2 narrowed to 25.3%; The income of kettle kitchen electricity increased by 11.5% to 630 million, and H2 increased by 4.7%; The income of electric heating kitchen electricity decreased by 18.8% to 330 million, and H2 decreased by 13.8%; The income of other small household appliances increased by 96.1% to 230 million, and H2 increased by 136.9%; The income of small household appliances increased by 1.3% to 410 million, and H2 decreased by 5.0%. In 2021, the company launched more small household appliances such as mother, baby and personal care, which doubled the income of other small household appliances. In the continuous expansion of the company’s overseas and offline channels, overseas sales increased by 9.9% and revenue accounted for 5.7% in 2021; Offline sales revenue increased by 7.6% and revenue accounted for 9.1%.
The annual gross profit margin increased steadily, and the investment in R & D and sales expenses increased. Despite the adverse impact of the rise in the cost of raw materials such as plastics, the company raised the gross profit margin by increasing the proportion of self operated and high gross profit products. In 2021, the gross profit margin increased by 0.35pct to 32.78% year-on-year, and the increase in Q4 gross profit margin was large, which was mainly affected by the adjustment of 2020q4 accounting standards. On the expense side, the annual R & D / management / sales / financial expense ratio of the company was + 0.73 / + 0.28 / + 3.31 / – 0.04pct to 3.60% / 3.63% / 15.34% / – 0.45% respectively. The increase in sales expenses was mainly due to the increase in the proportion of self operation and the marketing investment in new channels. At the same time, the company accrued asset impairment loss of 70 million in 2021, the annual net profit margin decreased by 3.84pct to 7.86%, the net profit margin of Q4 decreased by 1.54pct to 7.60%, and the net profit margins of Q3 and Q4 in a single quarter improved month on month.
Risk warning: the promotion of new products is not as expected; Industry competition intensifies; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
Investment suggestion: lower the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating.
Considering that the cost pressure of raw materials still exists, the profit forecast is lowered. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 330 / 400 / 450 million (the previous value was 400 / 4.9 / 540 million), with a year-on-year growth rate of 16 / 20 / 14%; Diluted EPS = 2.10/2.53/2.89 yuan, corresponding to PE = 20 / 17 / 15x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
