\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 713 Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) )
Core view
Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) disclose the advance notice of the first quarterly report of 2022. The company expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 will increase by 528155585755 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.02% - 75.44%; In terms of deducting non net profit, it is expected to increase by 493089 million yuan to 550689 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.36% - 71.88%. According to the guidelines, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 is between 130136 million yuan; The fee deduction net profit was between 126132 million yuan, and the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter increased 21q4 month on month.
The first quarter net profit rose month on month, confirming the outstanding growth. Even if there is the impact of the Spring Festival in the first quarter, the company still improves its performance month on month. We believe that the outstanding performance of the company once again confirms the excellent growth of the company. 22q1, we expect the company's main businesses: 1) freight forwarding, in the first quarter of 2022, the average SCFI index is 485084, an increase of 74% compared with 278013 in the first quarter of 21; 2) Warehousing: after the business adjustment of the company in the second half of 2021, it is expected that the current utilization rate of the company's warehousing capacity is at a high level; 3) chemicals distribution: SKU and supply sources. Since the beginning of 2022, the company has introduced many new types of raw materials, such as emulsion polymerization materials and biological reagents, etc., and the growth of SKU and the excellent logistics service capabilities of the company are expected to continue to lead buyers and shippers to tilt the channel to Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) . We believe that 2022 should be a year when the company's profit quality continues to improve.
The synergy between distribution and logistics will be further strengthened. 2021 is a year for the company to expand its chemical products distribution business. Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) aims to create different distribution. Its core competence lies in 1) mature offline chemical supply chain and logistics facilities; 2) The online platform element is the flow inlet; 3) Over the years, it has accumulated channel connections with head chemical enterprises and chemical trade customers. In 2022, we believe that the company's distribution business will achieve excellent performance in terms of SKU quantity, sales scale and scale effect. SKU and supply sources, since the beginning of 2022, the company has introduced emulsion polymerization materials, biological reagents and other new sources of goods to the line. The growth of SKU and the excellent logistics service capabilities of the company are expected to continue to lead buyers and shippers to tilt the channel to Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) . In addition, the system service capability cultivated by the company over the years is also expected to reflect the scale effect of R & D expenses with the scale of distribution business.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations; The company's business expansion was lower than expected.
Investment advice: maintain the "buy" rating. We believe that the business boundary expansion of the company is taking shape, from chemical logistics to a delivery company integrating logistics and transaction. The company has strong action force and landing ability in expansion. We believe that the company is of high quality and responds positively to the business fluctuations caused by the current epidemic. We maintain the company's profit forecast of RMB 640 million, RMB 990 million and RMB 1.35 billion from 2022 to 2024 unchanged. The current market value of the company corresponds to the performance forecast of 2022, which is 31x, maintaining the buy rating.
