\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 104 Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) )
Core view
Event: the company released the sales volume express in March 2022. The production / sales of group 3m22 were 420000 / 443000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 15.9% / – 10.1%, and that of 1q22 was 1269000 / 122000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.5% / + 6.8%. The company’s 3m22 / 1q22 sold 75000 / 192000 new energy vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.6% / + 27.7% respectively.
Joint venture sector: SAIC Volkswagen has recovered significantly, and SAIC GM is facing inventory pressure in the short term. 1) SAIC Volkswagen recovered significantly in the first quarter. The sales volume of 3m22 / 1q22 SAIC Volkswagen was 110000 / 331000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.2% / + 33.0% respectively. Since 2022, SAIC Audi A7 has been delivered, Q5 e-tron has been released, SAIC Volkswagen has replaced lingdu L, Xinwei Ran has been listed, ID series has been switched to model year 2022, and Langyi has been released in the medium term. SAIC Volkswagen has potential increment in 2022; 2) SAIC GM short-term pressure. The sales volume of 3m22 / 1q22 SAIC GM was 89000 / 275000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 31.4% / – 18.2% respectively. In March, SAIC GM’s wholesale sales were weak, which is expected to be mainly due to the high dealer inventory coefficient in February (2m22 SAIC GM Cadillac and Chevrolet inventory depth exceeded 2.5).
Independent sector: SAIC passenger cars outperformed the industry, and the implementation of high-end new energy brand products was accelerated. 1) SAIC passenger cars outperformed the industry. The sales volume of 3m22 / 1q22 SAIC passenger cars was 62000 / 194000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.3% / + 33.7% respectively. In the fourth quarter of last year, Mg one, an important SUV model of Mg brand, was listed, and Rongwei’s third-generation rx5 will be listed at Beijing auto show; 2) Shangtong five continued to launch popular models. The sales volume of 3m22 / 1q22 SAIC GM Wuling was 150000 / 327000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.0% / + 5.6% respectively. Hongguang miniev Gameboy, a new member of Hongguang miniev family, has blind orders for more than 30000 in 30 days; 3) The implementation of high-end new energy products was accelerated. Zhiji L7 Pro started batch delivery in March, and Feifan R7 prefabricated mass production vehicle was successfully offline in March.
Overseas performance continues to lead. The company’s 3m22 / 1q22 export and overseas base sales were 50000 / 172000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.0% / + 44.9% respectively. Among them, the global sales volume of Mg brand reached 135000 in the first quarter, and ranked among the top 10 single brands in 18 countries around the world, such as Australia, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the company’s market share is expected to rise in 2022. Historical data show that the company’s market to book ratio has a significant positive correlation with the market share. It is expected that the upward market share will promote the repair of the company’s valuation. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 760.2 billion yuan, 818.67 billion yuan and 920.21 billion yuan, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of 25.33 billion yuan, 26.5 billion yuan and 30.79 billion yuan. Based on today’s closing price, PE is 7.8 times, 7.5 times and 6.4 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the company’s product launch and sales are less than expected, the mitigation degree of chip shortage is less than expected, and the rise of raw material cost is more than expected
