\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Key investment points
Event 1: on the evening of April 9, 2022, with the joint efforts of the King Kong battery technical team and the Maiwei King Kong project technical team, the conversion efficiency of the microcrystalline debut of the King Kong hjt battery production line exceeded 24.5%.
Event 2: Recently, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) jointly with the manufacturer of packaging adhesive film Cybrid Technologies Inc(603212) , successfully developed a new high-efficiency hjt module using light conversion adhesive film, increasing the power of the module by more than 5W.
Single sided microcrystalline PECVD has made a major breakthrough, and it is expected that the subsequent single-sided microcrystalline data will impact 25% It is the world's first production line based on the production capacity of JT × 710 × 3 , and the output power of JT × 710 × 3 . On March 12, 2022, Jingang 210hjt battery was put through the whole line to realize streaming; On March 28, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) released the optimization data of the first round of basic parameters of amorphous process. The maximum conversion efficiency of the new product Jingang Haoyang 210hjt battery has reached 24.28%, ensuring the timely delivery of the first batch of reserved customer orders in April. On the evening of April 9, Vajra added Maiwei microcrystalline CVD cavity on the basis of amorphous in the early stage. The maximum conversion efficiency of the battery exceeded 24.5%, and the average value was close to 24.3%. It fully reflects the great potential of Maiwei's first mass production microcrystalline production line in improving conversion efficiency. In the follow-up, the two sides will aim at 25% of the average mass production conversion efficiency of hjt.
Microcrystalline PECVD is an important node for short-term cost reduction and efficiency increase of hjt. According to Maiwei, the expansion scale of hjt in the industry is expected to reach 20-30gw in 2022, a significant increase year-on-year compared with 8.1gw in 2021. Compared with the expansion scale of hjt, the market pays more attention to the progress of hjt parity. If hjt achieves cost parity with perc within this year, the industry is expected to usher in a large-scale expansion of hjt, the leading manufacturer, in 2023. At present, cost reduction nodes including smbb and large capacity equipment have been realized. We expect that the hjt parity nodes in 2022 mainly include microcrystalline PECVD mass production, silver slurry localization, half bar sheet, silver clad copper localization, etc. among them, the mass production data of positive surface microcrystalline PECVD is expected to reach about 25%, the output power is expected to reach about 490w (based on m672 chip), and the efficiency is expected to reach 25.5% after superimposing back surface microcrystalline (double-sided microcrystalline). Microcrystalline PECVD was adopted for the expansion of Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) and Huasheng new energy hjt in 2021. Among them, the first show data of Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) microcrystalline has been published, and Huasheng data will be released later.
Jointly Cybrid Technologies Inc(603212) adopt light conversion adhesive film to increase the power of hjt components by 5W +, and strengthen the ecological construction of Maiwei hjt Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) in addition to improving the performance of its own hjt equipment, continuously lead the cost reduction of hjt silver paste, silicon material, target and other links outside the equipment, build a Maiwei hjt ecology and speed up the process of hjt parity. The ultra-high photoelectric conversion efficiency of hjt products largely stems from the excellent surface passivation ability of intrinsic amorphous silicon to crystalline silicon. However, due to the absorption of ultraviolet light by TCO film and amorphous silicon film, the current of its battery is lower than that of ordinary battery. Maiwei joins hands with Cybrid Technologies Inc(603212) and other enterprises to convert ultraviolet light with low photon response to blue or red light with higher response for hjt battery through light conversion adhesive film. For 60 m6hjt modules, the power can be increased by more than 5W. The experimental data show that the light conversion material has a high application prospect in hjt products. Maiwei suggests that the subsequent light conversion materials be optimized in the following two points: 1. Optimize the light conversion material and the dispersion process of the light conversion material in the packaging film, so that the power of the light conversion film module is higher, the transparent film is increased by more than 1%, and the relative gain of 10W is obtained at the module end; 2. Optimize the weather resistance of the light conversion film, ensure that the light conversion film material components pass the three times IEC test, and ensure the effectiveness of the light conversion material itself in the accelerated test.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 890 / 14.4 / 2.04 billion, corresponding to pe62 / 38 / 27 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the iteration of photovoltaic technology is less than expected, the research and development of new technology is less than expected, and the market competition intensifies the risk.
