\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 123 Giantec Semiconductor Corporation(688123) )
Giantec Semiconductor Corporation(688123) 21q4 achieved month on month growth. According to the company’s performance express, Giantec Semiconductor Corporation(688123) 2021’s revenue was 545 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 107 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 85.16 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.6%. The 21q4 revenue of the company is 153 million yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent is about 24 million yuan, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent is about 28 million yuan; Compared with 21q3’s revenue of 128 million yuan, net profit attributable to the parent company of 17 million yuan and net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of 26 million yuan, all achieved month on month growth.
With the gradual recovery of the market demand for downstream terminal applications, the sales of the company’s main products showed a steady recovery trend. Among the company’s revenue in 2021, the main product lines such as nonvolatile memory chips, voice coil motor driver chips and smart card chips achieved revenue of 425235300 yuan, 52103000 yuan and 653258 million yuan respectively, accounting for 78.07%, 9.57% and 11.99% of the operating revenue in the same period respectively.
Due to the insufficient capacity supply of suppliers, the market expansion of norflash products of the company failed to achieve the expected effect, and the income from EEPROM products is still the main source of income for the non-volatile memory chip business of the company. The main application field of the company’s eerpom products is smart phone camera module. According to IDC statistics, the total shipments of smart phones except apple brand in the world in 2021 increased by 3.83% compared with the same period in 2020, which correspondingly led to the increase of EEPROM market demand. The company’s EEPROM products achieved an annual sales revenue of 425235300 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.04%. In order to reduce the risk to the company’s performance caused by the industry fluctuation of a single downstream application field, the company focuses on expanding the application field of EEPROM products. The spdeeprom products developed in cooperation with Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) achieved mass production in the fourth quarter of 2021, and some A1 grade automotive EEPROM products also passed the aec-q100 reliability standard certification of a third-party authority at the end of the fourth quarter, completing the planning and layout of nonvolatile memory chip products.
The restricted stock incentive plan has been granted. On February 25, 2022, the company issued the announcement on granting restricted shares to the incentive objects of the restricted stock incentive plan in 2022 for the first time. The board of directors of the company decided to grant 1584000 restricted shares to 78 incentive objects for the first time with February 25, 2022 as the equity grant date of the equity incentive plan, with the grant price of 22.64 yuan / share.
Giantec Semiconductor Corporation(688123) is the leading company of EEPROM in China. The company’s EEPROM product line includes series EEPROM products with standard interfaces such as I2C, SPI and microwire, as well as SPD / SPD + TS (temperature sensor) series EEPROM products mainly used in computer and server memory modules. The company’s EEPROM products have the characteristics of high reliability, wide voltage, high compatibility and low power consumption. They are rated as Shanghai famous brand products during 20132019. The products are widely used in smart phones, LCD panels, Bluetooth modules, communications, computers and peripherals, medical instruments, white appliances, automotive electronics, industrial control and other fields.
DDR memory module is also an important application field of EEPROM. Driven by home office, online education, cloud computing and big data, the demand scale of computers and servers has increased significantly. According to the report released by IDC, the global shipments of computers and servers exceeded 300 million and 12.2 million respectively in 2020. Based on the calculation that each computer is equipped with 1-2 memories, each server is equipped with 10-12 memories and each memory is equipped with 1 EEPROM, the demand for EEPROM in the field of DDR memory modules will exceed 420 million in 2020.
The spdeeprom products jointly developed by Giantec Semiconductor Corporation(688123) and Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) were mass produced in 2021q4. Ddr5 related chips began mass production and shipment in 2021q4, and the quantity is continuous and large-scale. From an industry perspective, in ddr5 generation, in addition to memory interface chips, server memory modules need three supporting chips (SPD, TS and PMIC), and udimm and sodimm of PC and notebook computers need two supporting chips (SPD and PMIC). The value of the whole ddr5 related chips is higher than that of DDR4 generation. Since ddr5 is a brand-new product, the rhythm of loading related chips needs to be further observed. If we refer to the penetration rhythm of DDR4 memory interface chip, the penetration rate of each generation of products can reach about 20 ~ 30% at the end of 12 months and 50 ~ 70% at the end of 24 months. Basically, this generation has completed most of the penetration of the market at the end of 36 months.
It is assumed that the demand for EEPROM in DDR memory module field from 2022 to 2025 is consistent with 420 million in 2020. We assume that the penetration rate of ddr5 will be 22%, 50%, 80% and 100% from 2022 to 2025. Considering that the suppliers of ddr5 spdeeprom are only Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) ( Giantec Semiconductor Corporation(688123) ) and Renesas (IDT), and Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) has a share of about 40% – 50% in RCD, we assume that Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) and Giantec Semiconductor Corporation(688123) have a share of 50% The annual shipments of ddr5spdeeprom developed by Giantec Semiconductor Corporation(688123) and Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) and from 2022 to 2025 are 46 million, 105 million, 168 million and 210 million.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: according to the performance express of 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 107 million yuan. The company is the leading company of EEPROM in China. Considering the pulling effect of ddr5’s rapid penetration on the company’s EEPROM business in 2022, as well as the product upgrading of the company’s voice coil motor and smart card chip and the expansion of downstream smart phone cameras, automotive electronics and other application fields, we raised the company’s net profit forecast from 2022 to 2023 to 250 / 352 million yuan, an increase of 37% / 63% compared with the previous time, corresponding to pe87 / 37 / 26x, Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the growth rate of consumer electronics slows down and the demand is weak; Risk of rising material costs.
