\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 709 Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) )
In 2021, the company made a profit of 2.208 billion yuan, which is in the middle of the performance forecast. The company achieved a revenue of 11.091 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 169%; Corresponding to Q4, the revenue was 4.468 billion yuan, an increase of 214% month on month. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.208 billion, a year-on-year increase of 314%; Corresponding to Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 655 million yuan, down 15% month on month. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 34.98%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.01pct; The net interest rate was 20.80%, up 8.65pct year-on-year. The substantial improvement of the company’s profitability throughout the year is mainly due to the high industrial boom, the high shortage of electrolyte and lithium hexafluorophosphate, the continuous rise of product prices, the continuous improvement of integration and the outstanding profitability of the company.
The lithium battery market demand is strong, and the company continues to expand production to ensure high-speed growth. In 2021, the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery reached 154.5gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 143%. The strong demand in the downstream drives the rapid growth of electrolyte shipments. The company’s electrolyte shipments reached 144000 tons in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 97%. Looking forward to 2022, we expect that the downstream demand will continue to remain strong. At the same time, the company’s bases such as Liyang and Fuding have been put into operation successively. The company’s electrolyte shipment in 22 years is expected to reach 30 China Tianying Inc(000035) 0000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of more than 100%. In 2021, the company successively arranged new production capacity in Fuding, Pengshan, Nantong, Zhaoqing and other places. The long-term electrolyte production capacity is planned to be close to 1.2 million tons, further consolidating the leading position.
The company continues to increase its upstream layout and improve its profitability through integration. By the end of 2021, the company has a capacity of 32000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate, and the technical transformation project of 30000 tons in 2022 is expected to be completed in June. The company’s existing hexafluoride production capacity is planned to exceed 170000 tons (converted into solid), and the corresponding electrolyte supply guarantee production capacity is nearly 1.3 million tons. At the same time, the company also actively expanded the production of VC, DTD, lifsi and other projects, with an integrated layout to increase profits.
Many businesses of the company are booming, and the deepening layout of iron phosphate is expected to contribute considerable income. In 2022, the 100000 ton iron phosphate Yichang phase I project of the company is expected to be put into operation. The company has reached cooperation with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Hunan Yuneng and other customers, and the large-scale effect will promote the positive pole business to contribute considerable revenue. In addition, the company’s daily chemical business has developed steadily as a whole. In recent years, the company has continued to expand its production of daily chemical material projects to consolidate its leading edge. Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; The production progress is less than expected; Raw material prices rose more than expected.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating. The company has deeply cultivated the electrolyte industry chain, improved the layout of raw materials, integrated layout and continuously improved its profitability. At the same time, iron phosphate, daily chemical and other businesses have developed stably and contributed considerable profits to the company. Based on the marginal optimization of profitability brought about by the integrated layout of the company, we raised the original profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.133/5.726/7.858 billion yuan respectively (the original forecast was 3.618/5.335 billion yuan in 2022 / 2023), the year-on-year growth rate will be 132.4% / 11.5% / 37.2% respectively, the diluted EPS will be 5.33/5.95/8.16 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 16.9/15.1/11.0 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
