\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 62 Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) )
Performance forecast: in 2022q1, the parent company’s performance increased by 25-45% at the same time. In 2022q1, the company is expected to achieve a parent company performance of 48.47-56.23 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.0%-45.0%; If the government subsidy of RMB 4.86 million is excluded, it is estimated that the non performance of parent company deduction will be RMB 43.60-51.34 million, with a year-on-year increase of 28.8%-51.7%. Overall, during the period, the growth centers of parent owned performance / parent owned deduction non performance were 35.0% / 40.2% respectively, maintaining high-speed growth.
Update of current situation: geographical conflict superimposed epidemic situation has repeatedly increased uncertainty, and technology + platform + service mode is escorted. In 2022q1, external geopolitical conflicts and repeated epidemics brought uncertainty to China’s economic recovery, but during the period, the company 1) product innovation + forward-looking layout: the company carefully interpreted the macro policy guidance, prospectively predicted the development trend of the industry, made technical investment in advance, and improved the layout of technical products and product innovation to meet the incremental service demand brought by economic changes; 2) Key customer driven + long tail penetration: adhere to the key customer driven, and continuously expand regional long tail customers to cultivate new performance growth points on the basis of deeply excavating the needs of key customers through the “front store” tentacles of technology and service outlets; 3) Appropriately increase the expenditure on new technology platforms: increase the investment in vertically subdivided recruitment platforms, human resources industry internet platforms and human cloud products, and constantly improve the business ecological model of “technology + platform + service”. In terms of business, flexible employment continues to grow rapidly, but the forecast is slightly lower than that in the same period of 21 years, which is the impact of the low base in 2020 and the epidemic situation in 2022q1; Due to the impact of the epidemic, the growth rate of headhunting & RPO has also declined, and the pace of overseas business recovery is good.
Business outlook: the recent epidemic in Shanghai and Shenzhen has been repeated, and the flexibility of employment business is expected to be relatively strong, but RPO & headhunting is expected to be under pressure. Recently, the epidemic has spread again in Shenzhen and Shanghai, China, and regional economic activities have been restricted for a short time. However, historical data show that Kerui’s flexible employment business can still maintain a relatively steady growth under the epidemic situation. In 20q1, the number of flexible employment dispatched personnel is 14800 / + 24%, and the total number of outsourcing dispatched personnel is 42300 / + 15%. Under the epidemic situation, it shows its business resilience, while the headhunting and RPO business has declined. However, with the resumption of work and production in the later stage, the corresponding business also shows a relatively good recovery trend. Therefore, we expect that under the influence of the short-term epidemic, RPO & headhunting may be under pressure, while flexible employment is relatively resilient.
Risk tips: macro, epidemic and other systemic risks; M & A integration fails to meet expectations; Fierce market competition; New technology business expansion is less than expected; Exchange rate fluctuations, etc.
Investment suggestion: short-term view of flexible employment, medium-term view of growth potential under technology empowerment, and maintain the “overweight” rating
The performance of 2022q1 is in line with our expectations. Despite the disturbance of Shanghai and Shenzhen epidemic in the short term, considering the resilience attribute under the flexible employment epidemic, the EPS in the 21st-23rd year is temporarily maintained at 1.27/1.67/2.13 yuan, corresponding to pe34 / 26 / 20x. Under the “key customer driven + long tail penetration”, the flexible employment business is expected to maintain rapid growth. The RPO & headhunting business needs to track the epidemic situation and macro changes. The midline suggests to follow up and pay attention to the cultivation process of new technologies and maintain the “overweight” rating of the company.
