\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 893 Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) )
Core view
Event: Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) released the 2021 annual report, and achieved an operating revenue of 34.1 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 19.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.188 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.6%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 706 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 19.1%; The net cash flow from operating activities was 16.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 362.9%. In 2022, the company is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 38.43 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.259 billion yuan.
The annual business plan was completed steadily, and the main business revenue of aeroengine increased by 21.9%. The company achieved a revenue of 34.1 billion yuan in 2021, 107.1% of the annual budget; Among them, the revenue from aeroengines and derivatives was 31.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.9%, accounting for 106.7% of the budgeted value; Foreign trade export subcontracting income was 1.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 14.4%, accounting for 98.1% of the budgeted value; The revenue from non aviation products and other businesses was 490 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 17.5%, accounting for 145.9% of the budgeted value. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.188 billion yuan, accounting for 101.3% of the budgeted value.
The proportion of new products increased and the gross profit margin decreased: the gross profit margin of the company in 2021 was 12.5%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year; The net interest rate was 3.6%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. In 2021, the demand for Aeroengine products increased and the number of products delivered increased; However, due to the adjustment of product structure and the increase of the proportion of new products, the gross profit margin has decreased, and the profit side is under short-term pressure. The sales expense rate in 2021 was 1.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.36 percentage points, mainly due to the increase of after-sales support tasks and sales service fees. The financial expenses were 73 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 76% year-on-year, mainly due to the abundant cash flow of the company, the increase of interest income and the decrease of interest expenditure.? The revenue growth of the parent company was high, and the total profit of Liming company increased by 18.2%. From the perspective of the four main engine plants, the revenue growth of the parent companies Western Airlines and Liyang power in 2021 was high, 42.3% and 33.2% respectively; The revenue growth of Liming company and Nanfang company were 17% and 11.7% respectively. On the profit side, the total profit of Liming company increased by 18.2% in 2021, from 480 million in 2020 to 550 million yuan; The total profits of Liyang power, China Western Airlines and China Southern decreased by 36.7%, 20.5% and 9% respectively.
The target revenue of 22 years is 38.4 billion yuan, an increase of 20.7% over the budget of 2021: the company is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 38.43 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 20.7% over the budget of 2021 and an increase of 12.7% over the actual revenue of 2021; Among them, the main business of aeroengine and derivatives is expected to achieve a revenue of 36.27 billion yuan, an increase of 21.3% over the budget of 2021 and 13.8% over the actual revenue of 2021. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.259 billion yuan, an increase of 7.4% over the budget of 2021 and 6.0% over the actual net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021.
The amount of related party transactions is expected to increase by 30.5% in 22 years: previously, the company announced the plan of related party transactions in 2022, and the amount of related party sales is expected to be 20.75 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9% over the budget in 2021 and 25.9% over the actual amount in 2021; It is estimated that the amount of related procurement is 20.99 billion yuan, an increase of 13.9% over the budget in 2021 and 35.4% over the actual amount in 2021.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.48/19.7/2.58 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 75 / 57 / 43 times. As the only platform for the overall listing of aviation power under AVIC, the company has strong certainty of demand and revenue growth during the “14th five year plan” period. In the future, with the batch production of new products, the performance is expected to be released; For the first time, give a “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: the risk that the epidemic will affect the macro-economy and the downstream demand is less than expected; The risk that the development progress of new products is less than expected.
