\u3000\u30003 China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) 00073)
The company predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 in 2022 will be 350400 million yuan, an increase of 135% – 168% at the same time and – 4% ~ + 10% month on month, exceeding market expectations. The company expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 in 2022 will be 350400 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 135% – 168% and a month on month change of – 4% ~ + 10%; Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 320370 million yuan, an increase of 178% – 222% and a ring increase of 3% – 19%. Previously, the company predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company from January to February 2022 was 230 million yuan, an increase of 114% and a further increase in March, slightly exceeding the market expectation.
In Q1 2022, we expect to ship 16000 tons, with further growth month on month. Deducting the net profit of non single ton, we expect 2 Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co.Ltd(000021) 000 yuan / ton, exceeding the market expectation. We expect the company to ship 16000 tons in Q1 in 2022, nearly doubling year-on-year growth and slightly increasing month on month. In terms of profitability, we expect that the net profit per ton of Q1 in 2022 will be 220 Fujian Nanping Sun Cable Co.Ltd(002300) 0 yuan / ton (excluding the net profit per ton of about 2 Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co.Ltd(000021) 000 yuan / ton), which is higher than the 19000 yuan / ton of Q4 in 2021, mainly benefiting from the improvement of capacity utilization and inventory income. According to the previous announcement and calculation of the company, the net profit per ton of the company will be about 20000 yuan / ton from January to February in 2022, and we expect to further increase to 23000 yuan / ton + in March 2022, with the performance exceeding the market expectation. We expect Q2 output to increase further month on month in 2022. We expect that the annual shipment will be 9 Shenzhen Ecobeauty Co.Ltd(000010) 0000 tons, with an increase of 80% +, of which the proportion of high nickel products is expected to increase from 20% to 40%. We expect that the single ton profit of Q2 in 2022 is still expected to maintain the Q1 level in 2022. With the consumption of low-cost inventory, we expect that the annual single ton profit can be maintained at 1 Rizhao Port Co.Ltd(600017) 000 yuan / ton, flat year-on-year.
Bind major downstream customers, steadily expand production, and improve the integrated layout. The proportion of overseas customers of the company in 2022 is expected to be 70% + and the customer structure will be further optimized. Among them, the company is the main supplier of sk. We expect to double the demand in 2022 and enter the supply chain of electric vehicles of first-line brands in the United States. We expect to contribute the main increment. At present, the company has an effective capacity of 44000 tons. At present, the capacity of Jiangsu phase IV and Changzhou phase II are under construction. The company expects Changzhou phase II to be put into operation in the second half of 2022. Considering the elasticity of outsourcing capacity, we estimate that the company’s shipment in 2022 can reach 9 Shenzhen Ecobeauty Co.Ltd(000010) 0000 tons, an increase of 80% year-on-year. The company plans to increase the production capacity of 50000 tons of high nickel + 20000 tons of 3C, which is superimposed on the production capacity planning of 100000 tons in Europe, and the existing production capacity is planned to reach 200000 tons +. At the same time, the company and SK have agreed to jointly establish a lithium battery cathode material factory in South Korea or the United States. At present, it has entered the preliminary project approval stage, and the expansion of the company’s production capacity is accelerated. By strengthening strategic cooperation with upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain and with Huayou, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) promises to provide nickel cobalt raw materials with competitive advantages; It also plans to participate in Zhongwei Indonesia laterite nickel mine project to ensure the supply of precursor raw materials and reduce procurement costs. In addition, the company cooperates with Zhongwei to lay out iron lithium and Huayou to lay out battery recycling, so as to expand new profit growth points. In addition, the company has increased the capacity layout of lithium iron phosphate and invested in the construction of 300000 tons of lithium iron phosphate integrated chemical plant in Guizhou. The phase I project has entered the project approval stage.
The net profit of the parent company is expected to remain at + 13.23% / + 13.7% in 2024, the same as that of the parent company before 2024, and the net profit of 2024 is expected to remain at + 13.2% / + 13.7%.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, and the competition intensifies.
