Core conclusion
This week (202204.04202204.08) review of the communication industry: (1) the communication industry fell this week: this week, the Shanghai composite index was - 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index was - 2.20%, the gem index was - 3.94%, and the communication industry index was - 3.36%. Among the 106 stocks in the communication industry sector, the number of rising and callback was 10 and 94 respectively, with a median rise and fall of - 4.00%.
(2) the operator sector performed well: the growth of the operator sector (+ 0.39%) was mainly due to the tilt of the operator's capital expenditure to the cloud, the development of the second growth curve, the overall R & D investment was high, the dividend rate was in the forefront of the industry, the revenue quality was good, and had long-term development potential.
(3) there was a slight correction in the communication device / optical device sector this week: we believe that with the bottom recovery of downstream optical fiber and cable prices, the structural upgrading of optical module market and the high boom of overseas PON market, the sector may usher in better development opportunities.
Key news of communication industry this week:
(1) according to the disclosure of China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) centralized procurement, this week's centralized procurement focuses on OTN, small base stations and optical fiber and cable sectors. OTN equipment procurement is the largest scale at present, which confirms the technical strength; The announcement of centralized purchase of 5g extended small base stations developed by 31 provinces and cities across the country was released, and the process of 5g deep coverage was accelerated.
(2) Internet of things: according to counterpoint data, 4q21 global cellular Internet of things module revenue + 58%. China's market revenue accounts for 40% + first, Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) revenue leads the world (accounting for about 26.6%), and Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) increases rapidly (accounting for about 6.6%).
(3) at present, China's Beidou space and ground infrastructure have formed a relatively complete service capacity. According to CCTV news, by 2020, China Spacesat Co.Ltd(600118) navigation industry will have a scale of about 403.3 billion yuan. It is estimated that by 2026, the output value will reach 670 billion yuan (CAGR = 8.83%).
Investment suggestions:
(1) the improvement of data transmission rate will be the main line before the large-scale popularization of 5g application. In 2022, the digital communication side optical module will be upgraded from 100g to 200g and 400g, with strong demand. The market share of Chinese enterprises exceeds 60%. Companies with strong technology and channel capabilities are expected to benefit preferentially under the trend of cycle arrival + clear demand orientation. Suggestions: (SZ ).
(2) the Internet of things / Internet of things will be one of the main themes of 5g era. The revenue scale of Chinese enterprises' Internet of things / Internet of vehicles module ranks first in the world. Under the condition of upgrading + large demand, companies with global multi industry and Multi Country qualifications and all product and all channel layout are expected to benefit first. It is suggested to pay attention to: Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) ( Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) . SH), Queclink Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(300590) ( Queclink Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(300590) . SZ).
Risk warning: the risk of uncertainty in international relations, the risk that the shipment volume is lower than expected due to the epidemic, and the progress of 5g construction is lower than expected
