Zhou viewpoint: 1) home furnishing:] affected by the scattered and frequent outbreak of the epidemic in China, the orders received by home furnishing enterprises fluctuated compared with February, but they are still stable as a whole, and the performance of leading companies is better than that of the industry. Under the background of increasing downward pressure on China’s economy, the recent policy improvement is expected to boost the valuation repair of the sector. It is suggested to pay attention to the improvement of follow-up orders and performance. Home furnishing companies are suggested to pay attention to Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (22-year PE 23x), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (22-year PE 19x), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (22-year PE 13X), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (22-year PE 14x), Minhua Holdings (22-year PE 10x). 2) Papermaking: last week, the box board corrugated paper leader recently shut down and limited production, announced that the product price was raised, and the pulp price was adjusted at a high level. The recent epidemic has disturbed the industry demand and logistics. It is suggested to pay attention to the demand changes of subsequent industries. The paper sector suggests paying attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (22 years PE 10x) and Shanying paper (22 years PE 8x). 3) Packaging and printing & new type tobacco: the paper packaging sector suggests paying attention to Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) (22-year PE 14x) with bottom profitability and valuation, and the new tobacco sector suggests paying attention to Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) (22-year PE 15x) with stable main business of cigarette label and leading layout of new-type tobacco industry chain. 4) Household personal consumption: continue to be optimistic about Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) (22-year PE 24x). The barriers of traditional core business channels are stable & the expectation is improved month on month. The new business model is gradually mature and the profitability is expected to gradually rise in the future.
The light industry manufacturing sector performed slightly worse than the market last week (2022.4.3-4.8). Last week, the light industry manufacturing industry index fell 1.4%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.1%. The overall performance was inferior to the market. In the light industry manufacturing segment, the packaging and printing industry index was – 3.9%, the entertainment industry index was – 3.6%, the household goods industry index was – 0.1%, and the paper industry index was – 0.6%.
Household: the high prices of raw materials and sea freight fell slightly last week. In the past week as of April 9, 2022, in terms of chemical raw materials, the market prices of TDI, MDI and polyether were – 1.4%, – 0.2% and – 1.0% respectively compared with last week. In terms of hardware raw materials, copper prices were + 0.1% month on month (MOM) last week. The high level of sea freight dropped. Last week, CCFI: the sea freight of the US west route was – 6.1% higher than that of last week.
Papermaking: the price of packaging paper and futures pulp rose slightly last week, and the prices of other kinds of paper remained stable. The past week as of April 9, 2022: double adhesive tape price, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 7000 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) 6700 yuan / ton (unchanged); The price of white cardboard, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6710 yuan / ton (up 300 yuan / ton), Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) 6820 yuan / ton (up 300 yuan / ton); Coated paper price, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6800 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) 6500 yuan / ton (unchanged). Dongguan Jiulong Dilong Dongguan Jiulong corrugated paper 4440 yuan / ton (up 50 yuan / ton), kraft carton board 4780 yuan / ton (up 50 yuan / ton). In terms of cost, as of April 9, 2022, the purchase price of Tianjin Jiulong waste yellow paperboard was 2190 yuan / ton (unchanged), the price of Brazilian goldfish broad-leaved pulp was 780 dollars / ton (unchanged), the price of Chilean Silver Star coniferous pulp was 990 dollars / ton (unchanged), and the pulp futures price was 6890 yuan / ton, up + 1.68% from last week.
Packaging: the price of tinsector increased slightly and the price of aluminum decreased slightly. As of April 9, 2022, last week, tinsector Tianjin Furen spcc0 The price of 18 900 tinsector coil is 8550 yuan / ton (up 50 yuan / ton), the price of A00 aluminum is 22097 yuan / ton (down 172 yuan / ton), and the price decreases slightly.
Risk factors: the risk of decline in real estate sales and the risk of sharp rise in raw material costs
