\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 104 Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) )
Event overview
The company released the production and sales express in March: the monthly output was 420000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 15.9% and a month on month increase of + 9.9%. The monthly wholesale sales volume was 443000, with a year-on-year increase of – 10.1% and a month on month increase of + 37.6%.
The cumulative output of 2022q1 was 1.269 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 5.5%; The cumulative wholesale sales volume was 1221000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 6.8%.
Analysis and judgment
The short-term disturbance of the epidemic is stable
The company’s production and sales in March fell year-on-year, and we expect it to be mainly affected by the epidemic in Shanghai. The independent performance is relatively stable, and the joint venture has declined. Specifically, the independent brand is stable and the sea is growing rapidly. SAIC sold 62000 passenger cars in March, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.3% and a month on month increase of – 3.4% (the output was 62000, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.5% and a month on month increase of – 4.0%). In 2022q1, the cumulative wholesale sales volume of SAIC passenger cars reached 194000, a year-on-year increase of + 33.7%. According to the company’s disclosure, the overall overseas sales volume of 2022q1 company exceeded 172000, of which the global sales volume of Mg brand reached 135000. SAIC GM Wuling wholesale sales volume in March was 150000 units, unchanged year-on-year, with a month on month increase of + 127.3%; (the output was 131000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.9% and a month on month increase of + 12.3%). In 2022q1, SAIC GM Wuling’s cumulative wholesale sales reached 326000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 5.7%.
The joint venture has declined, and the pressure on GM is obvious. SAIC Volkswagen sold 110000 vehicles in March, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.2% and a month on month increase of + 21.4% (the output was 108000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.4% and a month on month increase of + 11.3%). The cumulative wholesale sales volume in 2022q1 was 331000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 33.0%. We judge that under the mitigation of core shortage, the public will gradually open the replenishment to accelerate the release of demand. SAIC GM sold 89000 vehicles in March, with a year-on-year increase of – 31.4% and a month on month increase of + 16.5% (the output was 89000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 31.3% and a month on month increase of + 18.1%). In 2022q1, the cumulative wholesale sales reached 275000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of – 18.2%. We judge that on the one hand, the chip gap is still large, and the cumulative output is – 19.8% year-on-year; On the other hand, the demand for old models has declined, which is expected to be mainly due to the launch of competing electric vehicles at the same price, and the substitution of fuel models is more obvious.
The production and sales of model intensive modification on the market are expected to improve gradually
SAIC GM Wuling has been intensively listed. In view of the continuous rise of battery costs, the company hedged by changing funds and upgrading. Mini EV successively ushered in the reform and listing in March, with a selling price of 3280049800 yuan; The Gameboy version was officially launched on April 8, with the endurance upgraded to 200300km and the price of 5580069800 yuan. The blind order for 30 days is more than 30000 vehicles. We expect to support the demand for A00 pure electricity.
The popular models of the joint venture are changed to the market, and the sales volume is expected to improve gradually. The sales volume of the new Passat is outstanding, with a cumulative wholesale of 47000 vehicles in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of + 113.1%.
Lingdu l was listed on March 31 at a price of 149900189900 yuan. It focuses on digital + sedan, which is more in line with the needs of young consumer groups. In addition, the sales volume of Audi a7l is gradually climbing and is expected to continue to contribute to the increment.
The quantity and quality of new energy have increased simultaneously, and the upward pace of brand has accelerated
The sales volume of new energy vehicles of the company has increased rapidly, and the performance of independent new energy is better than that of the industry. In 2022q1, the company sold more than 192000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 27.7%. The penetration rate of independent new energy has reached 26.7%, exceeding the overall level of the industry. We believe that the company has a deep technological accumulation in new energy, and its ability to create popular products is constantly demonstrated.
Zhiji has joined hands with Feifan to accelerate the upward pace of the brand. Zhiji L7 Pro was launched on March 29 at a price of 408800 yuan. It has obvious advantages in modeling, intelligent configuration and performance, and is expected to seize the high-end pure electric market. Feifan R7 prefabricated mass production vehicle has been successfully offline, equipped with high-level intelligent driving scheme and multi-dimensional sensory interactive cockpit, and the intellectualization has been greatly upgraded.
Investment advice
Facing the force majeure of industrial core shortage, the company actively deepened its internal skills, comprehensively optimized its organizational strength and product strength, and accelerated its transformation from the perspective of user operation and experience strategy. The company has solid underlying technology, excellent platform ability and clearer independent growth. With the gradual improvement of chip supply, the company is expected to usher in a new growth cycle of independent + joint venture two wheel drive, and the leader of passenger cars will return. At present, the company is at the historical bottom of earnings and valuation, and we maintain the profit forecast: it is expected that the company’s revenue in 202123 will be 8302 / 8693 / 903.8 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 289 / 331 / 37.9 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 2.47/2.83/3.24 yuan, with the closing price of 16.94 yuan on April 8, corresponding to pe6.00 yuan per share 9 / 6.0 / 5.2x, corresponding to Pb 0.7 / 0.6 / 0.5x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The influence of lack of core continues; Downside risk of auto market; Joint venture brand downside risk; The landing of new electric intelligent models is not as expected; Overseas expansion was less than expected
