\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 063 Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) )
In 2021, the revenue increased significantly, and the cost pressure led to a decline in the gross profit margin
In 2021, the company’s revenue was 2.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 84.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 316 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.19%. The sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials, the shortage of international shipping capacity, the increase of logistics costs, the continuous appreciation of RMB and other factors have led to the decline of the gross profit margin of the company’s main business; It will be improved in the future. We adjusted the profit forecast for 2022 / 2023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to reach 593 (- 3.13) / 993 (- 5.94) / 1.426 billion yuan, EPS is 3.83/6.41/9.21 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio of the current stock price is 34.7/20.7/14.4 times respectively. We are optimistic about the repair of the profit margin after the price rise of the company’s products in 2022 and maintain the “buy” rating.
Optimistic about the improvement of profit margin of the company’s follow-up products
The average price of products in the first three quarters was 1.34 yuan / wh, and the unit profit was about 0.25 yuan / wh. In the fourth quarter, 574.34mwh was shipped, the average price of the product was 1.34 yuan / wh, and the unit profit was 0.10 yuan / wh. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the price of upstream raw materials such as lithium carbonate continued to rise, putting pressure on the profit side of the company. We analyzed the main reasons why the average price of products did not increase: (1) the proportion of Chinese products increased. In 2021, the domestic revenue was + 120.39%, higher than the growth of overseas revenue (+ 76.95%), and the average price of Chinese products was relatively low, driving down the average price of the company’s overall products; (2) The price rise of some overseas projects lags behind. We expect the profit margin of the company to improve gradually after the first quarter of 2022, mainly based on: (1) the upstream price is gradually loosened, and the company also strengthens its layout and raw material reserves in the upstream; (2) Cash in the price increase to the downstream, which is reflected in the profit side.
Long life cell & LMFP cell & sodium ion battery key breakthrough, energy storage cell technology leads the future growth
(1) long life cell: improve battery life and comprehensive performance by studying artificial SEI, pre lithium, multi-layer coating and other technologies of negative electrode. On the basis of keeping the energy density not lower than 175wh / kg, the cycle life of the company’s long-life battery is increased to more than 12000 times, which is expected to exceed 15000 times in the future, with a service life of more than 20 years, which is the highest level in the industry; (2) The lithium ferromanganese phosphate battery core is arranged. At present, the chemical system platform verification and small-scale test development of the battery core have been completed, focusing on solving the technical problems of the processing technology; (3) The development of core material system of sodium ion battery, independent research and development of key materials, homogenization and coating process development and cell design have developed the first generation of sodium ion battery products and completed small-scale trials.
Risk warning: the capacity expansion is not as expected, the price correction of upstream raw materials is not as expected, and the impact of the epidemic on the financial summary and valuation indicators
