\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 636 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) )
Q4 is a profit pressure period, with high annual revenue / net profit attributable to parent company
The company released its annual report for 21 years. 21fy achieved a revenue of 14.573 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.234 billion yuan, yoy + 133%; It is expected to realize a net profit of 4.15 billion yuan, yoy + 142%, all at the median level of the performance forecast range. Among them, Q4 single quarter revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company is 38.1 / 5.8 / 560 million yuan, yoy + 23.3% / – 3.8% / – 3.1%.
The volume and price of float / energy-saving glass rose simultaneously, and the gross profit margin of 21fy reached a record high
In terms of business, float / energy-saving glass 21fy achieved a revenue of 12.43 billion yuan, yoy + 47.4% / + 83.2%. According to the company’s disclosure, the unit selling price of float / energy-saving glass was 104.4 yuan / heavy container, 62.3 yuan / square meter, yoy + 41% / + 14.3%, and the sales volume of float / energy-saving glass was 118.91 million heavy containers, 32.6 million square meters, yoy + 4.5% / + 48.8%, achieving a simultaneous increase in volume and price. On the profit side, the comprehensive gross profit margin of 21fy company was 50.24%, with a year-on-year increase of 13pct, and the gross profit margin of float / energy-saving glass was 51.6% / 42%, with a year-on-year increase of 14.4 and 8.8pct respectively. Specifically, the cost / gross profit of the original film per heavy box is 50.6/53.9 yuan, yoy + 8.8% / + 95.3%, the cost / gross profit of energy-saving glass per square meter is 36.1/26.2 yuan, yoy + 8.9% / + 22.8%. We believe that the selling price and gross profit of float glass of the company may fall in 22 years.
Equity incentive drives the cost rate upward, and the overall cost control is good
The expense rate of 21fy company during the period was 15.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1pct. Among them, the ratio of sales / Management (excluding incentive expenses) / R & D / financial expenses is 0.86% / 7.5% / 4.44% / 0.48%, with a year-on-year change of -0.04 / + 1.28 / + 0.16 / – 0.82pct. The increase in the ratio of administrative expenses (excluding equity incentive) is mainly due to the increase in employee compensation. We believe that it is mainly related to the cost front brought by the diversified production and energy expansion of the company, and the financial expense ratio has achieved marginal improvement after the successful issuance of convertible bonds. 21fy company has accrued 94 million yuan of asset impairment loss, including 45 million yuan of fixed asset impairment, which is mainly due to the impairment of fine processing placer equipment and some old equipment. We believe that this item has one-time characteristics. To sum up, the company’s net interest rate reached 29%, a significant increase of 10 PCT year-on-year.
Photovoltaic glass business continued to overweight and maintain the “buy” rating
According to Zhuo Chuang information, the company’s photovoltaic glass (ultra white floating method) has a production capacity of 1500t / D and is expected to be put into production this year of 1000t / d. we expect the company’s production capacity release to be concentrated in 23 years; According to the latest plan of the company, the production capacity of ultra white calendered photovoltaic glass in the future is expected to reach 14400t / D (calendering caliber & overseas production capacity). At the same time, the company plans to build quartz sand production bases in Zixing, Hunan, Malaysia and Zhaotong, Yunnan. The integration also demonstrates the company’s determination to develop photovoltaic glass business for a long time. The company is a leader in float glass, deeply cultivating its main business, promoting the production capacity layout of electronic glass and photovoltaic glass, accelerating the construction of energy-saving building glass projects, and is expected to enhance its profit growth in the future. According to the latest price of float photovoltaic glass, we lowered the profit forecast and expected the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 3.74/43.4/5.62 billion in 22-24 years (the previous value was RMB 4.2/5.1 billion in 22-23 years), corresponding to PE 9.4/8.2/6.3 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: float glass price persistence is less than expected; The company’s photovoltaic / electronic / medicinal glass production line construction and reaching production were not as expected
