\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 000)
Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) took the lead in entering the mature stage
Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) as a dry bulk port, it has entered the maturity stage earlier than container ships, oil tankers, RO ro ports and other ports. With the slowdown of urbanization and industrialization, China's demand for bulk raw materials has entered a platform period.
From 2016 to 2021, the cargo throughput of Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) was flat, including 18% decrease in ore, 29% increase in coal, 19% decrease in steel and 33% increase in other bulk commodities. In 2021, the operating revenue of Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) was 6.075 billion yuan, down 22.49%, mainly due to the reduction of Beijing international trade business and non consolidation since the end of August; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.089 billion yuan, an increase of 13.36%, mainly due to the increase in income from asset disposal; Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 1.663 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.59%, which was mainly due to the reduction of ore demand due to the limited production of steel mills. Iron ore imports can be tracked with high frequency, and the performance in 2021 is in line with expectations.
Focus on the main business and shrink diversified investment
In the mature period, focus on the main business and shrink diversified investment, Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) has become the pioneer of the port industry Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) as a public infrastructure company, stable throughput and loading and unloading rates bring stable profits and abundant cash flow. The dry bulk cargo terminal business has entered a mature period and capital expenditure has decreased, so reinvestment affects the value of the company Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) invested in the container terminal and ship transportation business in previous years suffered losses year after year, and the profit of commodity sales business was meager. Starting from 2020, Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) significantly reduced the scale of commodity sales business, withdrew from ship transportation business, stripped off container terminal business, and focused on the main business of bulk cargo handling. The adjustment of investment direction is expected to promote the profitability of the company.
A high proportion of dividends and increased investment value
Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) 's dividend ratio and dividend yield are far ahead, becoming the benchmark of the port industry. Due to the reduction of reinvestment demand, the dividend proportion of Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) will be significantly increased to 64% in 2020 and further increased to 99% in 2021. In 2021, the dividend yield of Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) is 11.4%, which is far ahead in the transportation industry. It is the only A-share port company with high investment value Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) shrinks diversified investment, while there is little demand for reinvestment in the main business. We expect the company to continue to pay high dividends. Considering the payment pressure of the purchase price after the major shareholder acquired Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) container terminal and commodity sales company, we expect Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) to maintain a very high proportion of dividends in 202123.
Maintain profit forecast and target price
Taking into account the decrease of asset disposal income, the increase of loading and unloading rates, the stripping of loss making businesses, etc., the EPS forecast for 202223 is maintained, and the EPS forecast for 2024 is 0.35 yuan.
Risk tip: the environmental protection restriction on production has become stricter, the double restriction on energy consumption has become stricter, the investment in real estate and infrastructure has declined, the port fee reduction policy has been issued, and the proportion of dividends has decreased
