\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 62 Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) )
Event overview: the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 484705562258 million yuan in Q1 of 22 years, with a year-on-year increase of 25% – 45%. The non net profit deducted is 436028513581 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.75% – 51.65%. The impact of non recurring profits and losses on the net profit is expected to be about 4.86 million yuan, mainly due to the receipt of various government subsidies.
Sub business expectations: 1) industry level: since this year, the repeated international local wars and Chinese epidemic have brought certain pressure to economic development and transmitted it to the human resources industry. According to the peer feedback of the disclosed financial reports: at present, the attitude of the recruitment market is weaker than that of the same period last year (such as boss direct employment), and that of the general flexible employment market is also weaker than that of the same period last year (human resources and talents) Faced with the phenomenon that the demand of key customers is reduced or the price increase rate is reduced, but the scene of professional flexible employment market is still high. 2) Company level: in the face of market changes, the company first grasps the market opportunity and carries out technology investment and product innovation in advance to meet the incremental service demand brought by economic changes; Second, always adhere to the key customer drive, sink the regional market on the basis of deeply excavating the needs of key customers through various types of “front store” tentacles of technology and service outlets, and constantly expand regional long tail customers, so as to continuously cultivate new performance growth points; Third, through technical means and intelligent management, increase the investment in vertically subdivided recruitment platforms, human resources industry internet platforms and human cloud products, and constantly improve the business ecological model of “technology + platform + service”.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company continues to seize the market with the advantages of thousands of people and thousands of Posts + front store and back factory + technology empowerment. The overall technology investment in 21 years is expected to exceed 100 million yuan, which is expected to lay the foundation for the future technical effect. We expect to increase the R & D scale in 22 years, and the performance is expected to maintain rapid growth. In the medium and long term, we need to pay attention to the outsourcing head of major customers and the change of cost budget At the same time, pay attention to Kerui’s mining of medium and large customers and online capture of long tail customers. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be RMB 249 / 318 / 415 million. The PE of the company’s share price corresponding to the performance in 22 years is only less than 27 times. It has the valuation cost performance and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the performance forecast data of the first quarter of 2022 is the preliminary calculation, and the specific disclosure data shall be subject to the first quarterly report officially disclosed by the company; Macroeconomic downside risk and repeated epidemic risk; Key customer churn risk
