\u3000\u30 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) 34 Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) )
It is mainly engaged in deformation / casting / new superalloys, with a compound growth rate of 33% / 38% in revenue / profit in the past three years
The company is a key enterprise subordinate to the Steel Research Institute. It is one of the companies with the strongest technical R & D strength and the most complete product models in the field of superalloys in China. Its products cover all subdivided fields of superalloys, and multiple brands occupy a dominant position in the market; The company’s main business is casting / deformation / new superalloys. In 2020, the revenue is 1 / 4 / 200 million yuan, accounting for 62% / 24% / 14% respectively. The compound growth rate of revenue in recent three years is 52% / 9% / 25% respectively. It is expected that the compound growth rate in the next three years will be 40% / 24% / 30% respectively. In 2023, the revenue proportion of the three is expected to be 70% / 20% and 10%. The leader of casting alloy will expand rapidly, and the deformation / new superalloy will grow steadily;
With the largest number of product models, the strongest R & D strength and fast capacity expansion, it is expected to lead the industry in growth
Competitors: at present, China needs to import a large number of superalloys. Chinese competitors mainly include Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Wedge Industrial Co.Ltd(000534) , etc; Downstream demand is strong, and it is expected to maintain a benign competition pattern for a long time in the future;
Competition pattern: the industry barrier is high and the concentration is high. The suppliers are mainly composed of special steel enterprises, affiliated enterprises of institutes and private enterprises; The company surpasses other institutes and enterprises in product coverage model and industrial scale, special steel enterprises in R & D strength, and private enterprises in experience and background. It is expected to benefit from the high growth of Superalloy industry.
It is estimated that the compound growth rate of revenue / profit of the company in the next three years will be 35% / 41%, with large growth space and sufficient development potential
Industry demand: the addition and maintenance of military engines promote the great development of high-end superalloy market. Large domestic civil aircraft are expected to open the ceiling of Superalloy application. Missile “consumables” have a large demand for engine superalloys. The demand for superalloys is boosted by ships, nuclear power plants and chemical multi lines. It is expected that the market scale will accumulate 189.1 billion yuan in the next five years, with a compound growth rate of 14%;
Advantages: 1) multiple documents and policies of “two machine special projects” and “2035 vision” support industrial development; 2) The second phase of equity incentive is bound to the core technical backbone to enable the development of the company for a long time; 3) Leading technology, complete product types, with the technical ability to produce more than 80% of China’s brand products, deeply participate in the two machine superalloy industry chain, and the products have a high market share in the two machine field; 4) Domestic substitution trend remains unchanged, urging leading enterprises to take the lead.
Growth points: 1) the expansion of new / maintenance scale of military aircraft engines and the significant increase in the demand for Superalloys for missile and ship engines; 2) Extensive merger and acquisition of Qingdao Xinlitong to expand to the civil Petrochemical / metallurgical market; 3) Strategically arrange the field of metal additive manufacturing powder, extend and enrich the industrial chain, and promote the diversified development of the company. Growth rate: it is estimated that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 29%, 35% and 32%, with a compound growth rate of 32%.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 250 / 34 / 460 million, with a growth rate of 25% / 35% / 33% respectively. The compound growth rate in the next three years will be 22%, pe64 / 48 / 36 times. It will be covered for the first time and given a buy rating.
Risk tips
Military engine assembly / civil engine localization / production expansion is less than expected, and the competition pattern changes
