\u3000\u30006 Oceanwide Holdings Co.Ltd(000046) 00004)
Business data: the second half of the year continued to suffer from the impact of the epidemic, and the annual passenger volume ranked first in China's airports
21q4: the company's passenger swallowing volume, takeoff and landing sorties, cargo and mail swallowing volume were - 51%, - 28%, + 8.3% respectively in 19 years, and - 37%, - 25%, + 10.4% respectively in 20 years; Compared with 21q3, they were - 1.8%, + 2.5%, + 11.4% respectively.
In 2021, the company's passenger swallowing volume and take-off and landing sorties were - 45%, - 26%, + 7% respectively year-on-year in 19 years, and - 8%, - 3%, + 16% respectively year-on-year in 20 years.]
Financial data: Q4 turned losses into profits, and the annual net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted, reducing the loss by 200 million yuan
Revenue side: in 2021, the company's operating revenue was 5.18 billion yuan / - 0.85%, mainly due to the year-on-year decline in business volume; The company's revenue related to Q4 and Q4 is the highest, of which the revenue related to Q4 and Q4 is the highest / + 1.5%. Among them, the advertising revenue is 840 million yuan / + 23.6%. At the end of the period, the newly exempted accounts receivable in Guangzhou was 110 million yuan, a decrease of about 50 million yuan compared with the end of the previous period.
Cost side: in 2021, the operating cost is 5.23 billion yuan / - 1%. The management fee was 341 million yuan / - 6.5%, accounting for 6.58% of the revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.39 PCT, mainly due to the company's reduction in expenditure under the epidemic. The sales expense was 75.74 million yuan / + 10.5%, accounting for 1.46% of the revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 0.14 PCT, mainly due to the social security exemption policy last year.
Investment income: the investment income in 2021 was 117 million yuan / - 48%, mainly due to the equity income of 140 million yuan obtained from the international logistics company in the previous period.
Other income: in 2021, other income was 58.55 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.83 million yuan, mainly due to the decrease of government subsidies.
Profit side: in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -406 million yuan, and the loss increased by 156 million yuan year-on-year; The net profit deducted from non parent company was -455 million yuan, and the loss narrowed by 198 million yuan year-on-year. In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company is 84 million yuan / + 72%, turning losses into profits. We believe that this is related to the delay of some revenue recognition time.
Outlook: waiting for the release of epidemic prevention policy and the restoration of the company's performance after the recovery of international passenger flow
According to the judgment of the 14th five year plan of civil aviation, 20212022 is the recovery period and savings period of the industry, and 20232025 is the growth period and release period, focusing on expanding the Chinese market and restoring the international market. With the recovery of international passenger flow, the airport tax-free income is expected to recover, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance valuation. Before the outbreak, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) tax-free sales volume was small, and the per capita tax-free sales volume was less than 1 / 3 of that of Beishang airport, so there was huge long-term potential.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company's tax-free flexibility is basically unchanged, and the layout of tax-free businesses focusing on luxury has achieved a breakthrough from 0 to 1. In the medium term, it can become a call option for entry-exit recovery. We estimate that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be about RMB 50 million, RMB 990 million and RMB 1.8 billion respectively, and the target price in 2022 will be RMB 17.92/share, maintaining the "buy" rating
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic is not as expected, and there is the possibility of re signing tax-free contracts
