\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 25 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) )
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) 3 month output 226675 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 9.28% / + 73.22% respectively; The sales volume was 236104 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 4.30% / + 70.91% respectively. Changan autonomous (Chongqing Changan + Hefei Changan) produced 130958 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 31.48% / + 110.00% respectively, and sold 130444 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 19.73% / + 92.11% respectively; Changan Ford produced 23541 vehicles in March, with a month on month ratio of + 19.76% / + 140.09% respectively, and sold 23500 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 0.64% / + 96.92% respectively.
In March, the overall wholesale of the group was + 70.91% year-on-year, outperforming the industry. 1) In March, according to the preliminary estimated data of the passenger Federation, the wholesale of passenger cars in March was 1.773 million, with a month on month ratio of – 4% / + 22% respectively. The overall performance of Chang’an group and all brands are better than that of the industry as a whole. In terms of brands, the independent performance of Chang’an is better than that of Chang’an Ford. Under the mitigation of the impact of chip shortage, the production batch of Changan independent & Changan Ford achieved positive growth in March on a month on month basis. 2) According to the preliminary estimated data of the passenger Federation, the wholesale of passenger cars in Q1 was 5.4 million, a year-on-year increase of + 7.94%. Changan Q1 wholesale totaled 651400 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.63%. Under the influence of chip shortage, the overall performance of Changan is lower than that of the industry as a whole. Among them, 353000 vehicles were wholesale in Changan independent Q1, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.95%; Changan Ford Q1 wholesale 60000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of – 6.39%.
In terms of new cars: Changan is independent. In March, the hybrid uni-k IDD was launched globally, with a price of 176900192900 yuan, a 100 kilometer acceleration of 8.1 seconds and a feed fuel consumption of 5L / 100km. Pure electric endurance mileage under NEDC condition is 130km; Uni-v was also officially listed in March, with a guide price of 108900131900 yuan, which will further improve the independent sales performance of Chang’an; Changan Ford: in March, the new generation Mondeo opened pre-sale, and the pre-sale manufacturer’s guide price was RMB 1598 Guangdong Jiaying Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002198) 00.
March Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) overall stock removal: according to our self built inventory system, the overall inventory of Chang’an enterprises in March was – 9429 (compared with February), and the inventory of Chang’an independent enterprises in March was + 514 (compared with February); Changan Ford enterprise inventory + 41 vehicles in the current month (compared with February). Chang’an Mazda went to the depot in March with 2890 vehicles.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the forecast of Changan Automobile’s operating revenue of 106214137866/173574 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.6% / + 29.8% / + 25.9%, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of 4547 / 5946 / 7017 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36.8% / + 30.8% / + 18.0%, EPS of 0.60/0.78/0.92 yuan and PE valuation of 18 / 14 / 12 times. Considering that Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) future performance will usher in a new round of improvement, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand was lower than expected.
