\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 25 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) )
Event overview
On April 8, the company released the production and marketing express of March 2022. In March, the company wholesale sold 236000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.3% and a month on month increase of + 70.9%; The output in March was 227000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.3% and a month on month increase of + 73.2%.
In 2022q1, the company's total wholesale sales of 651000 vehicles were + 1.6% year-on-year. Among them, the sales of independent brand passenger cars (Chongqing + Hefei bases), Chang'an Ford and Chang'an Mazda were 353000, 60000 and 41000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 2.9%, - 6.4% and + 39.9% respectively. Analysis and judgment:
Independent performance is bright, and the joint venture has improved steadily
1) outstanding independent performance and high-speed growth on a month on month basis. Independent brand passenger cars (Chongqing + Hefei bases): the sales volume in March was 130000, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.7% and a month on month increase of + 92.1%. The cumulative sales volume in 2022q1 reached 353000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of - 2.9%. The independent has successively ushered in the reform and renewal, and the heat margin of the main products is upward:
The heavy lift car uni-v was launched on March 21, and the product heat continued to increase. The new car has launched four models with a price of 108900131900 yuan. Compared with the competitive Honda Civic at the same level, uni-v has obvious advantages in intelligence level, interior and exterior decoration materials and power performance, and is equipped with electric tail as standard, which is more sporty. 1 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 50000 yuan is the mainstream price range of passenger cars. The market space is broad. In addition, the product power has obvious advantages in the same level. We judge that the steady-state monthly sales is expected to exceed 10000 vehicles;
A158 enters the product announcement of the Ministry of industry and information technology, and is expected to make a relay to e-star to contribute to the increment. In March, the company's new small pure electric vehicle type waxy corn (code a158) entered the publicity list of the Ministry of industry and information technology. The new car is built based on epa0 platform, which is smaller than Benben e-star and has a clearer positioning of economical transportation. We expect to inject new increment into the small and micro pure electric market.
Uni-k IDD was officially launched on March 10, opening the hybrid era of uni series. The new car has launched two models at a price of 176900192900 yuan. Hybrid has the advantages of energy saving and 0 mileage anxiety. Compared with fuel vehicles, the purchase premium is gradually narrowed, and the cost performance is highlighted. We expect to accelerate to seize the share of fuel and pure electricity in the medium term.
2) the joint venture Mazda has recovered rapidly, and the increment of Ford is expected to be realized: the sales of Changan Ford and Changan Mazda in March were 24000 and 11000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.6% and + 0.01% respectively. The cumulative sales volume in 2022q1 was 60000 and 41000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 6.4% and + 39.9% respectively. The joint venture brand has recovered steadily, and the introduction of new models of Lincoln brand is expected to drive the overall sales:
Lincoln Z was listed on March 12 and priced at RMB 252800340800. Compared with BBA entry-level models, Lincoln Z has obvious advantages in body size. Its body size of 4982 / 1865 / 1485mm exceeds that of Audi A4, BMW 3 series and Mercedes Benz C-class; Lincoln Z series is equipped with 2.0T high-power turbocharged engine as standard, and has obvious advantages in power performance. As the inheritance of American luxury, we judge that Lincoln Z will become a strong competitor for 300000 Yuan passenger cars.
The new energy platform accelerates the output, and avita carries high-end products
Relying on the new EPA platform and high-end CHN platform, the company plans to launch more than 20 new intelligent electric products in the next five years. New energy "Shangri La" plans to build three new special electric vehicle platforms, epa0, epa1 and epa2, covering multiple levels of small, compact and medium-sized products. The small car a158 (which has entered the publicity list of the Ministry of industry and information technology) and compact car c385 based on this platform are expected to be listed in q2-q3. Avita 11 based on high-end CHN platform will also realize the first batch of mass production and user delivery in Q3. In addition, the company's blue whale IDD hybrid system will also be gradually installed on existing fuel models, and the uni series will be equipped with PHEV version.
Avita, a brand-new high-end brand created by Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) in cooperation with Huawei and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was released in Shanghai in November 2021. We believe that the intelligent relay and electric competition in the second half will greatly enhance the needs of end consumers in terms of user interaction, and avita's high-end route has broad prospects.
Investment advice
The company's own brand capacity is fully loaded, the scale effect is prominent, the joint venture brand benefits from the high growth of the luxury car market, the delivery of avita new cars is imminent, and the short-term epidemic disturbance will not change the company's endogenous profit creation ability and scientific and technological growth. We maintain the forecast: it is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 102.87/114.49/125.94 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.58/56.6/6.95 billion yuan, the EPS will be 0.60/0.74/0.91 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 10.99 yuan / share on April 8, 2022, and the PE will be 18 / 15 / 12 times, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The iteration of independent brand models is not as expected; Ford's strategic adjustment is less than expected; Mazda's integration is not as expected; Avita brand development is not as expected.
