Automobile has become an important growth pole of semiconductor, focusing on the two main lines of “data flow and energy flow”. Under the background of automobile electrification, intelligence and networking, the value of automobile supply chain is being reconstructed: taking electric energy as the axis, the vehicle is upgraded to networked intelligent mobile terminal, forming competitive elements with hardware, software and services as the core, and becoming a new blue ocean for the extension and layout of electronic industry chain. As an important growth pole of semiconductors, the incremental space corresponding to the automobile market is expanded along the two main lines of “energy flow” and “data flow”. The energy flow provides the underlying energy support for the automobile, and the data flow provides the top-level control and scene enrichment for the automobile.
The sales volume of new energy vehicles continued to be strong, and the demand for parts and chips rose simultaneously. In March, the sales volume of new energy vehicles maintained a strong growth: gac-e’an became the first vehicle enterprise to exceed 20000, with more than 10000 cars for Xiaopeng, Nezha, ideal and zero running. Previously, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger vehicles in February was 246000 (YoY + 160%), and the carrying capacity of electric motor control of new energy passenger vehicles was 271000 (YoY + 140%), of which the carrying capacity of multi in one electric drive system was 140600 (YoY + 134%); The installed capacity of OBC and BMS is 245700 sets (YoY + 160%) and 246100 sets (YoY + 160%). With the continuous increase in the installed capacity of electric drive system, vehicle charger and battery management system, the global supply of automotive MCU, PMIC, IGBT and other chips continues to be tight. Infineon, Italian French semiconductor and other major manufacturers have issued price increase letters one after another. It is expected that the tension between supply and demand is expected to continue to 3q22.
The volume and price of automotive electric drive semiconductors have risen at the same time. In the process of vehicle electrification, electric energy replaces fuel as the energy source of vehicle drive, and the structure and energy flow of vehicle power electronics have changed: add “three electric systems”, namely battery, motor, electronic control system and supporting DC-DC module, battery management, on-board charger and other systems to complete the distribution and management of electric energy in the vehicle. Accordingly, the content of power semiconductors to realize energy conversion is doubled (the value of pure electric vehicles per vehicle is more than 1000 US dollars). According to yole’s prediction, the global new energy vehicle power semiconductor market will increase to US $5.6 billion in 26 years, with a compound growth rate of 26%; Among them, SiC module will reach US $1.74 billion, accounting for 31%; IGBT module will amount to $22, accounting for 39%.
Adas is expected to penetrate rapidly, and automatic driving chip and visual perception chip meet the changing situation. Yole predicts that the global ADAS penetration rate will increase from 12% in 21 years to 49% in 30 years. During this period, it is mainly equipped with L1-L2 ADAS models (including L2 +, L2 + +). The improvement of automatic driving level requires the upgrading of vehicle environment perception, planning and decision-making ability. As the core of automatic driving domain controller, the computing chip evolves to greatly improve AI computing power, so as to meet the needs of real-time processing of a large amount of sensor data from a wide variety of sensors and making driving decisions in complex road environment. On the one hand, the upgrading of visual perception promotes the volume and price of on-board CIS. Icvtank predicts that the global on-board CIS market will grow from US $3.81 billion in 2021 to US $9.07 billion (cagr18.9%); On the other hand, it may promote the integration of on-board ISP into CIS or visual processor SOC, and independent ISP, CIS and visual processor design companies are facing new market opportunities.
“One core and multiple screens” has gradually become the development trend of intelligent cockpit, and cockpit chips are advanced in the direction of large computing power. Car cabin intelligence is to improve the driver’s situational awareness, trust, comfort, better user experience, availability and safety by improving the sense of interactive experience in the car. According to icvtank’s prediction, the market space of smart cockpit will increase from US $40 billion to US $68.1 billion. Under the evolution of cockpit from distributed to domain control, relying on one SOC chip to run multiple operating systems and drive multiple display screens at the same time to integrate and interact (i.e. “one core and multiple screens”) has gradually become a development trend. It is required that the SOC chip of intelligent cockpit mainly develops towards greatly improving the computing power of CPU, GPU and AI.
Investment suggestion: focus on the two main lines of “data flow and energy flow”, recommend Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) and Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , characteristic process wafer foundry Huahong semiconductor, automotive CIS Factory Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , on-board memory chip design company Ingenic Semiconductor Co.Ltd(300223) , vehicle specification multimedia chip design company Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) , etc.
Risk warning: electrification and intellectualization are not as expected; The demand for automobiles has declined; Global supply chain uncertainty.
