Core view
Photovoltaic and wind power: required options under the consideration of energy security and "double carbon" objectives. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine makes Europe and even countries around the world re-examine the challenge of energy security. "Building before breaking" is expected to become the core idea of China's energy security and low-carbon transformation in the future. China's special resource endowment determines that the development and survival cycle of traditional energy may still be long, and its real withdrawal will be a long-term process. However, the demand for ensuring energy security does not mean that traditional fossil energy will have long-term sustained and significant growth. On the premise of firm "double carbon" goal, the medium and long-term incremental energy supply is expected to still rely on the rapid development of renewable energy. From the perspective of green energy transformation and energy security, Fengguang new energy will be an important option. China's resource endowment is "rich in coal, poor in oil and little in gas". Under the constraints of the "double carbon" goal, it is difficult for coal to grow continuously in the medium and long term. The external dependence of oil and gas resources has always been high. The vigorous development of photovoltaic and wind power will make the future incremental energy demand and gradually reduce the dependence on energy import. Under the dual background of "double carbon" goal guidance and energy security, we believe that the photovoltaic and wind power industry chain will usher in unprecedented opportunities for rapid growth.
Photovoltaic: the safety risk of the industrial chain is small, boosting the certainty of long-term growth. China's photovoltaic industry has strong export capacity, and the global market is highly dependent on China's production capacity. The localization rate of main industrial chain links, inverter, glass, adhesive film, etc. is at a high level; At present, the low localization rate is the low-temperature silver paste link. However, with the continuous maturity of China's R & D and production technology of photovoltaic cells, the supply and supporting facilities of corresponding industries are also expected to grow rapidly. In 2021, the upstream silicon materials are in short supply due to capacity problems, which drives the price of silicon materials to rise sharply; The shortage of silicon inhibits centralized demand, and users and overseas show high growth. With the gradual implementation of the expansion of upstream silicon production, the shortage of raw materials is expected to be gradually alleviated, and the demand elasticity is expected to be fully displayed. With the demand restoration of centralized projects, the distributed and overseas markets are expected to maintain growth, and the profits of the industrial chain may be transferred to the downstream.
Wind power: continuously optimize the industrial chain and reduce costs, and pay attention to the import substitution of high-end bearings. The localization degree of wind power is relatively high as a whole, and the localization rate of precision transmission parts in wind turbines is still at a low level. However, as Chinese bearing enterprises gradually realize the localization breakthrough of 3MW and above wind turbine spindle bearings, China is expected to gradually break through the "neck" link of the industrial chain and complete import substitution. The cost reduction drives the bidding price to continue to decline, and the downstream demand is activated. The parity of Haifeng projects is accelerated. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the compound annual growth rate of installed capacity of China's wind power industry is expected to exceed 15%. Under the background of energy transformation boosted by energy security considerations, the global wind power demand is expected to usher in resonance. We predict that the average annual installed capacity of global wind power is expected to exceed 110gw from 2021 to 2025.
Investment proposal and investment object
Photovoltaic: it is suggested to pay attention to the leading segments of the photovoltaic industry chain. 1) Photovoltaic inverter: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; 2) Integrated component Faucet: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) ; 3) Rubber film supply link Faucet: Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ; And 4) distributed photovoltaic faucets Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , etc.
Wind power: it is suggested to pay attention to the "repair + growth" leader of parts in the era of parity in the wind power industry chain. 1) Imported substitute faucets for wind power bearing links: Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) and relevant wind power flange faucets Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; 2) Megawatt casting and spindle Faucet: Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) ; 3) Leading high-quality pattern of submarine cable link: Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) ; 4) Tower link Faucet: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) .
Risk tips
The growth of photovoltaic industry is less than expected; The growth of wind power industry is less than expected; The transformation speed of energy structure is lower than expected; Changes in assumptions affect the calculation results.
