Matters:
Recently, the covid-19 epidemic in China has rebounded again. Under the background of the upgrading of epidemic prevention and control, consumers’ hoarding and home scenes promote the demand for essential categories such as fresh food, and supermarkets with strong supply chain capacity are expected to benefit from this background. In the long run, with the weakening of the impact of community group purchase and other modes, and the operation adjustment of leading companies in place, the business supermarket sector is expected to usher in operation repair.
Guosen retail view: 1) since the second half of 2020, due to the decline in the demand and CPI of hoarding mandatory consumer goods in the post epidemic period, and the impact of emerging business forms such as community group buying, the performance of the supermarket sector has been under pressure. The sharp correction of the sector Market also fully reflects the negative factors of the early fundamentals to a certain extent. At present, the valuation of the sector is in the historical quantile of 12% in the past five years. 2) In the short term, first, the repeated epidemics in many places have objectively spawned the demand for goods hoarding and household consumption, and promoted the short-term same store performance of supermarket enterprises focusing on mandatory consumer goods such as fresh food; Second, the moderate rise of CPI has supporting factors, which is also conducive to the same store performance of commercial supermarket enterprises. 3) In the medium and long term, supermarkets have built strong barriers with the help of long-term supply chain construction, especially in the field of fresh food. In the early stage, the low-cost competition of fresh food e-commerce has been gradually eased. With the ebb tide of community group purchase subsidies, the impact of emerging business forms on the supermarket industry has weakened. The industry will return to supply chain construction as the core barrier in the long term, and the value of offline leading supermarkets will be further highlighted. At the same time, leading supermarkets will steadily expand their stores and increase their market share after the epidemic. It is suggested to pay attention to the improvement of the fresh supply chain system and steadily promote the regional and national expansion of Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , etc.
