The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has sounded an alarm for the safety of China's automobile supply chain. After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the division factory of Lenny, the leader of wire harness in Ukraine, was closed. The shutdown of wire harness factory had a direct impact on the European automobile supply chain. Volkswagen tsvyko factory and Dresden glass factory were forced to shut down respectively, and the European factories of Porsche, Audi, Mercedes Benz and other manufacturers will also be forced to reduce production. In addition to wire harness, Ukraine is a large exporter of xenon, krypton, neon and other electronic gases. Electronic gases are indispensable in the production of automobile chips such as IGBT, MEMS and power management chips; If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, the global supply of automotive chips may be tight. China has not yet achieved full autonomy and control of the auto supply chain, especially in intelligent vehicles. It still relies on foreign investment in chip, on-board operating system and other subdivided fields. The import amount of auto parts increased from 171029 billion yuan to 243716 billion yuan in 20152021, with a CAGR of 6.1%. The import dependence of parts and components is still high. It is necessary to accelerate the pace of domestic substitution in these short board fields.
Intelligent vehicle is the development trend, and intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving are the core. With the advent of the era of automotive intelligence and networking, intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving will become the two competitive fields of intelligent vehicles. China's independent vehicle manufacturers and new forces are expected to realize the upward development of independent brands through configuration upgrading and function evolution in the two fields; Parts suppliers with smart cockpit layout and smart driving will usher in domestic substitution opportunities.
Intelligent cockpit: chips and operating systems need to be replaced independently. In the intelligent cockpit industry chain, Chinese suppliers have been relatively mature in the fields of vehicle machine, LCD instrument, HUD and cockpit application software, and cockpit chips and operating systems are still controlled by foreign manufacturers. Cockpit SOC chip is the core of intelligent cockpit. Qualcomm occupies a leading position with its computing power and first mover advantage. Sa8155p has become the mainstream cockpit SOC of medium and high-end models. Huawei, Xinchi technology and Xinqing technology, represented by chip manufacturers, actively layout the cockpit SOC field, and chip products will enter mass production in 2022. At present, QNX accounts for 43% of the market share of basic operating systems, and Linux + Android accounts for about 35%. Alibaba, Huawei and others actively develop on-board operating systems, develop customized operating systems based on Linux, and launch an independent on-board OS kernel on this basis, which is expected to break the long-term monopoly of foreign countries in the field of basic operating systems.
Intelligent driving: laser radar, intelligent driving chip with high computing power and intelligent driving domain controller need to be replaced by domestic products. In the perception system: lidar has the advantage of foreign enterprises and is in urgent need of domestic replacement. Decision system: intelligent driving chip with high computing power and intelligent driving domain controller are the core. Mobileye, NVIDIA, Qualcomm and other foreign-funded manufacturers launched chip products that meet L4 level automatic driving, while Tesla developed its own chips. Huawei, horizon, Nanfang Black Sesame Group Co.Ltd(000716) and other self-developed intelligent driving chips with high computing power. Intelligent driving domain controller is the center of intelligent automobile computing. Enterprises such as Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Neusoft Corporation(600718) , Jingwei Hengrun, Huawei, Baidu, Hongjing Zhijia, Chuangshi Zhijia and so on have launched layout in the field of intelligent driving domain controller. Shift by wire: the layout of foreign manufacturers is earlier, and the key chips mainly rely on imports; Brake by wire: Chinese enterprises have made layout and obtained fixed-point mass production of vehicle enterprises.
Investment proposal and investment object
In the process of gradually increasing the penetration rate of electric vehicles, the penetration rate of intelligent vehicles is expected to increase year by year in the future. At this stage, the core components of intelligent vehicles still need to be imported. Companies that actively layout lidar, intelligent cockpit, operating system, high-power chip and intelligent vehicle domain controller are expected to benefit. It is suggested to pay attention to: Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Jingwei Hengrun, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , etc.
Risk tips
The macroeconomic downturn affects automobile demand, the promotion process of smart cars is lower than expected, the process of smart cars by enterprises is lower than expected, and the uncertainty of epidemic control time affects automobile demand.
