Internet: from disorderly expansion to sustainable and steady growth, waiting for regulatory policies to digest and reduce costs and increase efficiency
Media and entertainment: at the traffic end, the scale and use time of short video users have increased steadily and continue to lead; Realization:
(1) games: the overseas market has become the main growth driver, and the head pattern of mobile travel to the sea is stable; The local market is weak under the influence of the suspension of juvenile protection superimposed version numbers. Considering the low base in the same period and the release of Tencent / Netease new games, 2022q3 is expected to pick up.
(2) advertising: the growth rate of advertising is expected to slow down in 2022, showing a trend of low before high. From the perspective of supply and demand, since 2021q3, the budget of education, games, finance, real estate and other industries has been reduced, and the scenes such as screen opening / pop-up advertising have been limited, resulting in the decline of ECPM; From the perspective of media, short video and social platforms have better prospects for advertising growth based on the advantages of traffic and transaction transformation.
E-commerce: the problem of “one out of two” between users and profits is more prominent. Alibaba and pinduoduo have a large user base and need to wait for long-term investment cycle businesses such as cloud computing and agricultural technology. Jingdong and meituan users still have room to sink. The overall profit is expected to improve in 2022. The main business of Jingdong is expected to grow steadily and narrow the loss of new business in cooperation with logistics and community group purchase. The main business of meituan takeout is expected to improve the profitability and stabilize the pattern of community group purchase.
Software services: SaaS is still a high-quality track for deterministic growth, and the profitability of IT service enterprises is restrained
SaaS: under the background of macroeconomic downturn, the IT expenditure of small and medium-sized enterprises is restrained in the short term, resulting in the slowdown of SaaS business growth, but it is still a high-quality track with relatively prominent growth certainty.
It service outsourcing: facing the dual pressure of rising upstream personnel costs and strong bargaining power of downstream customers, it is still necessary to strengthen cost control and improve efficiency to boost profitability.
Smart car: in March, the volume and price rose together, and the sales volume continued to grow rapidly in 2022. We attach importance to the improvement of profitability
The new forces of car making ushered in a simultaneous rise in volume and price in March. In terms of volume, it rebounded naturally after the low of the Spring Festival. In terms of price, it increased in March to cope with the cost pressure of upstream raw materials. 2022 is still the stage of rapid penetration of electric vehicles, with low overlap of users. It is still expected to achieve rapid growth through channel expansion and the introduction of new models. In the short term, we will track the product cycle of models. Xiaopeng G9 breaks through to the middle and high-end, the ideal L9 price continues to explore, and Weilai et5 sinks to the middle and low-end. The medium-term dimension regression considers the comprehensive strength of products, channels and brands and attaches importance to the realization of profitability. The ideal has achieved profitability in advance in 2021q4. Weilai plans to achieve breakeven in 2023q4. We expect Xiaopeng to approach breakeven in 2023.
Electronics: the supply chain of mobile phones urgently needs new products to break through, and the leader of wafer foundry continues to benefit from domestic substitution
Consumer electronics: Android mobile phone sales are weak, medium and high-end breakthrough will take time, short-term performance of mobile phone supply chain is under pressure, 2q or marginal improvement. There are indeed disturbances in the pattern of the optical industry. We actively expand large overseas customers such as apple / Samsung to ease the pressure of mobile phone business, and layout new products such as cars and VR / AR to drive the quadratic growth curve.
Semiconductor: the prosperity of the wafer foundry industry in the first half of the year is OK. Track whether the price rise of upstream raw materials will lead to continued price rise. Benefiting from domestic alternative demand, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Huahong semiconductor’s overall capacity demand is still in short supply; Huahong semiconductor plans to go public on the science and technology innovation board to prepare for the next round of production expansion.
Risk warning: epidemic control exceeded expectations; Internet regulatory policies are tightening.
