Key investment points:
The non bank financial industry slightly lost the market in March. It ranked 12th among the 31 Shenwan industry indexes, and the securities sector fell 6.35%.
The valuation of listed securities companies decreased compared with the previous month. As of March 31, the median valuation of Pb of listed securities companies was 1.31 times, down 0.10 times from the end of February.
The financial commission of the State Council issued a signal of stability, Maintain the “synchronous market” of the industry “Rating. On March 16, Liu he presided over the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council, which released a positive and stable signal. After the convening of the financial commission of the State Council, the CSRC said that it would resolutely implement the spirit of the special meeting of the financial commission of the State Council and spare no effort to maintain the smooth operation of the capital market. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to the progress of relevant measures such as capital market reform and long-term capital introduction. In the medium and long term, the valuation level of securities companies is related to their profitability Obviously, in recent years, with the decline of the profitability of traditional brokerage business of securities companies, the business model has gradually shifted to heavy capitalization, and the roe elasticity of the industry is declining, which limits the valuation elasticity to a certain extent, β Property is weakening. In the future, the securities business sector will still have a certain growth. The roe level of listed securities companies is expected to be more stable. In the future, the roe level of large investment bank securities companies is expected to reach 10-12%, while the roe of securities companies with successful wealth management transformation is expected to maintain about 20%. We believe that the valuation differentiation of the brokerage sector will continue. At present, the median Pb valuation of the brokerage sector is 1.31x. According to our expected valuation improvement space and future performance measurement, we will maintain the rating of the securities industry to “synchronous market”.
It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines. On the main line of investment, we suggest paying attention to the three main lines of leading securities companies in ficc and derivatives trading business, securities companies with prominent advantages in wealth management, and securities companies with leading investment banking business. Investment main line 1: focus on the head securities companies Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) ( Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) . SH), China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ( China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) . SH), which have stable operation, strong capital strength and leading ficc and derivatives trading business. Investment mainline 2: focus on securities companies that comply with the transformation and development of wealth management. (SH), stock market (China). Investment main line 3: it is suggested to pay attention to China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) ( China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) . SH), which is the leader in investment banking and ranks in the forefront of the new third board.
Risk warning: the market trading activity is low; The market fluctuates greatly; The business development of securities companies is not as expected; Strengthening financial supervision policies; The progress of capital market reform was lower than expected.
