Overseas giants have raised prices one after another, indicating a sustained high boom in the power semiconductor industry. The global power semiconductor market pattern is relatively concentrated, and overseas giants such as Infineon, Italy France semiconductor, NXP and Renesas occupy the main share, especially in emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic power generation. Therefore, the trend of overseas giants has important guiding significance for the outlook of the global power semiconductor industry. At the beginning of 2022, Infineon, Italy France semiconductor, NXP and other large overseas power semiconductor manufacturers all expressed their expectations for the high prosperity of power semiconductor this year. The average delivery time of key devices exceeded one year, and the annual production capacity in 2022 had been fully filled. In the case of strong demand and tight production capacity, overseas giants have carried out a new round of price increases. On February 14, 2022, Infineon took the lead in notifying downstream customers of the price increase; On March 24, 2022, Italy France semiconductor announced a full line price increase in Q2, including transportation in transit and overstocked products. It is expected that other manufacturers around the world will soon follow up this round of price rise, and the high-profile outlook of power semiconductor will be determined throughout the year.
IGBT: in the period of rapid development of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic, domestic alternatives welcome a good opportunity. IGBT is mainly used in medium and high voltage fields of 600V and above, and has natural advantages in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic power generation and other fields. Evtank data show that in 2021, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles was 6.7 million, with a year-on-year increase of 102.4%; China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) sold 3.548 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 160.1%. Looking forward to 2030, evtank predicts that the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 47.8 million, accounting for nearly 50% of the sales of new vehicles in that year. Since the second half of 2020, Chinese auto enterprises have been plagued by core shortage. Relevant Chinese associations, auto enterprises, semiconductor enterprises and other parties are discussing the supply mechanism of auto semiconductors, and will continue to strengthen domestic substitution in the future. A number of IGBT enterprises in China have realized batch shipment, and stepped up new product development, new capacity construction, new model verification and other work, which will continue to be in a high growth state in the next few years.
Photovoltaic power generation is in the stage of rapid development. Bnef data show that the global PV installed capacity in 2021 is 183gw; According to the prediction of the agency, the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 228gw in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 24.6%. According to the data of the national energy administration, China's photovoltaic installed capacity in 2021 was 54.88gw; According to CPIA's prediction, China's photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to exceed 75gw in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 36.7%. The photovoltaic inverter needs to use IGBT for DC-AC conversion and control voltage rise and fall. According to wood Mackenzie data, in 2020, the total shipment GW of China's top 6 inverter enterprises has accounted for 60% of the global share. In the case of insufficient IGBT supply, the progress of domestic substitution is relatively smooth. At present, many Chinese IGBT enterprises have entered the supply chain of major inverter manufacturers in China. With the release of production capacity of wafer foundry, the performance will grow rapidly.
MOSFET: the downstream demand of high-voltage MOSFET is strong, and there is a large space for domestic substitution. MOSFETs mainly include trench type, shielded gate type, superjunction and other types. High voltage products represented by superjunction MOSFETs and some shielded gate MOSFETs are mainly used in new energy vehicle charging piles, high-end industrial control, automotive OBC and other fields. They have high growth. At present, the domestic penetration rate is relatively low and there is a large growth space. Medium and low voltage products represented by grooved MOSFETs and some low-voltage shielded gate MOSFETs are mainly used in consumer fields such as household appliances, small household appliances and electric tools, and their growth is relatively weak. At present, Chinese MOSFET enterprises actively seize the opportunity of shortage and continue to focus on high-end products with faster growth, higher barriers and better profitability.
The trend of the third generation semiconductor is clear, and leading manufacturers compete for layout. SiC devices have the characteristics of high temperature and high pressure resistance, high energy density and high conversion efficiency, and have significant advantages in the field of new energy vehicles. Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Weilai, ideal and other car companies have applied sicmosfet in high-end models, which has obvious advantages in charging speed, mileage, starting acceleration, device volume and so on. Compared with silicon, GaN has the advantages of high temperature resistance, high frequency and low loss. It is widely used in the fields of fast charging and 5g communication base stations.
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Risk warning: the localization progress is less than expected; The expansion progress of the wafer factory is less than expected; Technology research and development is less than expected
