\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
[key investment points]
The revenue of 21q4 increased rapidly, and the net profit was disturbed by short-term factors and improved in the long term. The company released the annual report of 2021, and achieved a revenue of 216.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38.02%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 28.08%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.255 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 57.53%. Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 70.950 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.57% and a month on month increase of + 30.65%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 602 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 26.64% and a month on month increase of – 52.58%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 368 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 20.09% and a month on month increase of – 28.88%. The revenue growth of 21q4 was mainly due to the accelerated volume of new energy vehicle business quarter by quarter (the sales volume of 21q1-q4 new energy vehicles was 55000, 100000, 183000 and 266000 respectively), while the profit pressure was mainly due to the provision of 990 million yuan of assets and credit impairment loss in the current quarter (compared with 350 million yuan in the first three quarters).
Steady gross profit and cost control, high R & D investment to ensure long-term growth. The gross profit margin of 21q1-q4 sales of the company is stable, which is 12.60%, 12.90%, 13.33% and 13.12% respectively. The scale effect brought by the large volume of vehicle business or the cost pressure of hedging the price rise of some upstream raw materials. In 2021, the company’s sales, management and financial expense rates were 2.81%, 2.64% and 0.83% respectively, with a month on month ratio of -0.42pct, -0.12pct and -1.57pct respectively. On a quarterly basis, the rates of sales, management and financial expenses of 21q4 company were 2.57%, 2.72% and 0.58% respectively, with a month on month ratio of -0.39pct, + 0.19pct and -0.19pct respectively. The company’s R & D expenses in 2021 totaled 7.991 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 7.05%, a month on month increase of + 41.96% in 2019, and the annual R & D expense rate was 3.7%; Among them, the R & D cost of 21q4 was 2.757 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 23.19%, and the R & D cost rate in the quarter was 3.89%.
The cycle of pure electricity and plug-in hybrid products continues to be strong, and the increment of market-oriented external supply of parts can be expected. The company develops both pure electric and plug-in hybrid at the end of vehicle products, based on Super Hybrid DM-I and pure electric E3 The R & D achievements of 0 platform have been transformed, and the popular models such as Qin / song / Tang DM-I and dolphin pure electric have been successfully built. The subsequent models are also fully planned and ready to go (Han DM-I, seagull, sea lion, seal, destroyer 05, etc.). The company’s performance exchange meeting disclosed that at present, the cumulative undelivered orders have reached 400000, and the sales volume is conservatively expected to be 1.5 million in 2022. If the supply chain improves, it will impact the sales target of 2 million. In addition, the market-oriented layout of the company’s parts and components continues, and the incremental space for external supply may be gradually opened: 1) in terms of power batteries, the company holds considerable external supply orders such as FAW and Ford, and continues to promote capacity construction. In the second half of 2021, four power battery subsidiaries in Anhui Wuwei, Jiangsu Yancheng, Shandong Jinan and Zhejiang Shaoxing were successively registered; 2) Byd Company Limited(002594) semiconductor’s listing process is advancing steadily, and will make full use of China’s capital market to develop into a new type of semiconductor supplier with high efficiency, intelligence and integration; 3) Pure electric platform E3 0 with the excellent performance of new car sales, constantly prove their own scheme advantages and reliability, and save and provide opportunities in the future.
[investment suggestions]
The company’s new energy vehicle product cycle continues to be strong, the self-control of core devices such as blade batteries and power semiconductors, and the leading platform technologies such as DM-I super hybrid and E platform 3.0. Considering the continued strong performance of the company’s new energy vehicles, we raised the revenue forecast for 2022 and 2023. It is expected that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 3085 / 4037 / 504.6 billion yuan, the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company will be 7.56/139.6/20.89 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 2.60/4.80/7.17 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 88 / 48 / 32 times, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
[risk tips]
Chip supply shortage; Price rise of upstream raw materials; The competition of new energy vehicle products has intensified.
