\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event overview
On April 7, the company released the production and marketing express of March 2022. In March, the company wholesale sold 227000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 30.7% and a month on month increase of + 58.6%. Among them, the sales of GAC Honda, GAC Toyota, GAC passenger cars and GAC ea’an were 77000, 97000, 30000 and 20000 respectively.
In 2022q1, the company’s total wholesale sales of 608000 vehicles were + 22.5% year-on-year and – 6.5% month on month. Among them, the sales of GAC Honda, GAC Toyota, GAC passenger cars and GAC ea’an were 212000, 247000, 90000 and 45000 respectively.
Analysis and judgment:
The overall performance is bright, and the monthly sales center continues to rise
The company performed well in March and the monthly sales center improved steadily. The wholesale sales volume of the company in March was 227000, with a year-on-year increase of + 30.7% and a month on month increase of + 58.6%. Among them, GAC Honda and GAC Toyota wholesale were 77000 and 97000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 21.5% and + 41.0% respectively, and a month on month increase of + 34.6% and + 93.6% respectively; GAC passenger cars and GAC ea’an wholesale were 30000 and 20000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.1% and + 188.9% respectively, and a month on month increase of + 26.5% and + 138.3% respectively. The company’s monthly sales center continued to rise, and the monthly sales volume has been the best level in the same period since this year. The supply side continued to improve and the joint venture resumed rapidly. With the improvement of chip supply, the release of demand will be accelerated. In 2022q1, the output of GAC Honda and GAC Toyota increased significantly, to 209000 and 245000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.2% and + 28.1% respectively; The output of GAC passenger cars and GAC EA 2022q1 were 90000 and 45000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.9% and 150.9% respectively. Demand is strong, sales exceed production, and the wholesale sales of Japanese Liangtian and its own brand 2022q1 are greater than production.
The joint venture continues to sell well, and the strength of independent products is improved
The main joint venture models continued to sell well, and the monthly sales of six models exceeded 10000. The sales volume of six main models of the joint venture exceeded 10000 in March, of which Camry, accord and leiling series exceeded 20000, 27000, 21000 and 20000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 78.9%, + 22.4% and + 0.1% respectively. In terms of other main models, Binzhi, willanda and haoying also exceeded 10000. The performance of the main models of the joint venture is still bright, and we expect the production and sales to continue to improve. In April, GAC motor’s sales exceeded 10000 vehicles for three consecutive months, and the power of its own products continued to improve. GAC motor GS4 series sold 13000 vehicles in March, exceeding 10000 vehicles for three consecutive months. The climbing speed of new products on the market is accelerated, and gradually contribute to the increment. Gs4plus was launched in June 2021. From January to February this year, the monthly sales volume has increased to 5000. It is expected that the subsequent increment is expected to accelerate the release.
The independent launch of new products of ea’an is expected to accelerate
The company’s own brand new products have been launched continuously, and the sales volume has climbed rapidly. The company is in a new round of product development independently. In addition to gs4plus, Yingbao was listed in August 2021, and its sales volume has risen to more than 10000 in October; GAC motor’s new second-generation gs8 was officially launched in December 2021, and the sales volume is expected to climb rapidly. In terms of ai’an, the sales volume exceeded 20000 for the first time in March. We expect the modified aionsplus and the new aionlxplus to drive the whole. The new aionsplus is significantly upgraded in intelligence, reaching L2 level assisted driving, and the price after subsidy is RMB 152800179800; The new model aionlxplus was officially launched on January 5 this year, becoming the world’s first mass-produced pure electric vehicle with a endurance of more than 1000km. We believe that the introduction of new cars shows the determination of the high-end layout of ai’an brand. At the same time, the endurance of more than 1000 kilometers has obvious competitive advantages, and the sales volume is expected to increase rapidly. The mixed reform scheme of Ethiopia and Angola is implemented, and the valuation is expected to usher in reshaping. According to the scale and share ratio of this non-public financing, the valuation of GAC AIAN after the capital increase is about 39.2 billion yuan. The revenue of aian in 2021 is 17.27 billion yuan, corresponding to 2.3 times of PS. it is underestimated compared with other new forces. We believe that the spin off of aian is expected to usher in the reshaping of valuation.
Investment advice
As the leader of the first-line Japanese joint venture brand, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the growth of demand for replacement and additional purchase; With the continuous improvement of independent competitiveness, the replacement of fuel vehicles is accelerated under the drive of hybrid and intelligent dual core. The product strength of ai’an continues to be verified, and the mixed reform stimulates the vitality of state-owned enterprises, which is expected to take off with the help of the capital market. Maintain the company’s profit forecast from 2022 to 2024. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 86.26/98.1/106.18 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 9.98/117.6/12.7 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.95/1.12/1.21 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 11.02 yuan / share of A-Shares on April 7, 2022, and PE of 12 / 10 / 9 times, maintaining the “buy” rating of A-Shares of the company.
Risk tips
The sales volume of joint venture models is lower than expected; The profit of independent brand is less than expected; The mitigation of core failure is lower than expected.
