\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 42 Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) )
The company announced its performance in 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 3.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.82%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 428 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.36%; The R & D expenses were about 621 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 252.13%, accounting for 17.9% of the operating revenue.
Key points supporting rating
The performance basically met expectations, and the company’s assets reached a record high. The net profit of the company is mainly affected by the increase of R & D expenses and changes in fair value. The R & D investment of the company in 2021 was 754 million yuan, and the capitalized R & D expenditure accounted for 17.56%. The closing price of Jiahe biological stock held by the company fell, resulting in a 200.30% decrease in the income from changes in fair value during the reporting period compared with the same period of the previous year. It is estimated that the income from changes in fair value of the company in 2021 will be about -281 million yuan. The net operating cash flow of the company was about 705 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 517.62%. The company’s assets at the end of the period were 13.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.87%, of which the monetary capital increased by 3.443 billion yuan.
The growth of 13 valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine is the main engine, and the overseas increment is worth looking forward to. In 2021, under the pressure of covid-19 vaccine, the company’s pcv13 contributed revenue of 2.746 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 65.59%, equivalent to a sales volume of about 4.75 million doses; About 4.95 million pieces were approved and issued, with a year-on-year increase of 10.88%. On January 29, 2022, the company announced that the 13 price pneumonia vaccine was approved by the Moroccan drug regulatory department for listing. Previously, the partner marocvax estimated that Morocco would sell 2 million doses per year. Marocvax promised to reach at least 80% of the predicted sales per year, and the cooperation agreement lasted for five years.
Hpv2 vaccine landed, and the company harvested large varieties again. The company’s two price HPV vaccine was approved to be listed in March 2022. The applicable population is women aged 9-30. The immunization program is 3 shots, and women aged 9-14 can also use the two shot program, with a price of 319 yuan / 329 yuan. HPV vaccine can effectively reduce the risk of cervical cancer. In recent years, it has attracted increasing attention, has a high level of market education, and is in short supply. More than 15 provinces and cities have revealed their willingness to popularize it. The company’s HPV vaccine production capacity is basically ready, with an annual production capacity of about 30 million doses.
Advance the layout and lead the domestic mRNA vaccine. Covid-19 mRNA vaccine, which the company cooperates with Aibo biology and Academy of Military Sciences, is carrying out clinical phase III Basic and enhanced experiments outside China, which is the fastest mRNA vaccine in China. With Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Shiyao successively obtaining the ind approval of mRNA vaccine, mRNA technology is expected to get more attention.
Valuation
Without considering the possible contribution of covid-19 vaccine, we expect that the company will realize operating revenue of 5.635 billion yuan, 6.864 billion yuan and 8.255 billion yuan respectively in 202224; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.307 billion yuan, 2.048 billion yuan and 2.534 billion yuan; The corresponding EPS is 0.82 yuan, 1.28 yuan and 1.58 yuan.
Main risks of rating
Research and development is not as expected, approval and supervision risks, sales are not as expected, epidemic situation changes and national health policy changes.
