\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 556 Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) )
Key investment points
Event: the company and the Management Committee of Jiangsu Jianhu high tech Industrial Development Zone recently signed an investment agreement and reached a cooperation intention on the company's investment in Jianhu (phase II) 10GW photovoltaic large silicon wafer project in Jianhu County, Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province. The total investment of the project is expected to be 700 million yuan, which is expected to be put into operation in two stages in 23 and 24 years.
The 10GW cutting OEM capacity of Jianhu phase II was put into operation, and the total OEM capacity reached 45gw. The PV R & D base and the smart chip manufacturing center were launched in March of the current year (including 45gw of production capacity in March of the current year, and the production capacity of the smart chip manufacturing center); Leshan 20GW photovoltaic silicon wafer and supporting project (started in August 21, and phase I 6Gw is under construction); Jianhu (phase I) 10GW photovoltaic large silicon wafer project (started construction in September 21 and is currently under construction); Jianhu (phase II) 10GW photovoltaic large silicon wafer project (signed the investment agreement and is expected to be put into operation in two stages in 23 and 24 years. 5GW large silicon wafer chip production capacity is planned to be built in each stage). With the increase of downstream installation demand and the continuous production of silicon wafers, the Growth Logic of the company's OEM mode is strengthened.
The proportion of 210 large silicon wafer foundry increased, and battery customers improved the certainty of the company's foundry performance. The company's silicon wafer cutting OEM is mainly large-size silicon wafer (182 / 210), which has a competitive advantage in 210 size cutting. With the smooth construction of Leshan 20GW phase I, i.e. Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) 6Gw, we expect that the company's 210 size cutting proportion is expected to further increase to strengthen the company's cutting comparative advantage. Jinzhou sunshine, Runyang and other photovoltaic cell enterprises are mainly near Jianhu. We expect the company to have a total cutting OEM capacity of 20GW before and after Jianhu, and the main customer base in the future will be nearby photovoltaic cell customers. It is estimated that by the end of 2022, the company's OEM capacity for silicon wafer cutting will reach 21gw, and the actual shipment will be about 10-12gw. With the continuous release of silicon material and silicon wafer production capacity, the operating rate and profitability of the battery end are expected to be improved, so as to ensure the certainty of the company's cutting performance and make the company have both growth and certainty.
Hjt half bar slice is an important node of hjt parity in the past 22 years. We are optimistic about the first mover advantage of the company's half bar slice. Silicon cost accounts for the highest proportion of battery kwh cost. According to solarzoom data, the cost of silicon wafer accounts for 53% of the production cost of hjt battery. Half rod sheet is an important step to reduce the cost of hjt silicon wafer and improve the production yield. The company's hjt half bar and sheet technology is leading. In October of 21, the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Aikang. The two sides will gradually implement the cost reduction path of heterojunction n-type large-size silicon wafer thickness from 150 microns to 120 microns and 90 microns through in-depth cooperation in the field of n-type silicon wafer slicing, including the construction of n-type silicon wafer laboratory. With the continuous progress of hjt sheet cutting technology, the enterprises that currently layout hjt production capacity are expected to continue to cooperate with hjt to promote the continuous improvement of the company's cutting equipment and OEM service orders.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 170 / 41 / 660 million yuan, corresponding to pe61 / 26 / 16 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the expansion of silicon wafer production is less than expected, the profit fluctuation risk of the company's OEM business, and the market competition intensifies.
