\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
Key investment points:
The competitive advantage of the next wave in the chemical industry lies in the bonus of engineers. Wanhua is a rare model in China that drives the development of companies with technological innovation. Based on excellent culture, the company has created two moats of high technology and low cost through technological innovation and excellent operation Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) is stepping into the ranks of global chemical giants with the pace of growth stocks.
In the short term, the impact of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) fundamentals is the prosperity of products. From the perspective of characterization indicators, price spread is the core factor affecting short-term profits Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has an increasingly large product system. In order to better represent the prosperity of the company, we take Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ‘s product system as a whole, model the difference between revenue and raw materials according to the existing product system, trace the price difference between revenue and raw materials in history under the existing product system, and define the price difference as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) price difference index, so as to judge the prosperity position of the company. In the long run, the fundamental aspect affecting Wanhua is its future growth. Landmark products that can prove the company’s ability to continuously evolve are very important Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has proved itself on the MDI track. The projects that the company may implement in the future are the direction of the company’s future development and the space for the company’s continuous evolution.
Progress of key projects
According to wind, on March 10, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Ningxia) Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 100 million yuan, with Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) holding 100% of the shares. On March 17, 2022, the environmental impact assessment document of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 850000 T / a polyether polyol expansion project was accepted and publicized, and a 850000 T / a polyether polyol unit will be built in Wanhua Yantai Industrial Park.
The environmental impact of the technical transformation of the existing high-end TPU TPU production line from the technical transformation of the ordinary TPU TPU production line to the technical transformation of the ordinary TPU TPU TPU 3 TPU 3 production line will be accepted, and the technical transformation of the existing high-end TPU TPU production line will only be carried out after the technical transformation of the project TPU 17 TPU.
On March 18, 2022, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 20000 t / a silicone MQ resin and derivatives project environmental impact report was publicized, and 15000 T / a silicone MQ resin device and 5000 t / a silicone resin derivatives product unit of electronic packaging group will be built in Wanhua Yantai Industrial Park. On March 22, 2022, the environmental impact assessment of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) annual output of 75000 tons of polylactic acid integration project was publicized for the first time. Wanhua Meishan base will build a production workshop, warehouse, tank farm and other auxiliary facilities with an annual output of 75000 tons of polylactic acid.
On March 22, 2022, Ningbo ecological environment bureau announced the approval decision on the Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Ningbo) MDI / HDI technical transformation and capacity expansion integration project. After the technical transformation, the production capacity of phase I MDI unit was increased from 400000 T / A to 500000 T / A, the production capacity of phase II MDI unit was increased from 800000 T / A to 1 million T / A, and a new set of 50000 T / a HDI unit (phase II) and supporting public and auxiliary facilities were built.
On March 22, 2022, Ningbo ecological environment bureau announced the approval decision on the expansion and reconstruction project of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Ningbo) Rongwei polyurethane polyether polyol unit with an annual output of 280000 tons. After the completion of the project, the existing monomer polyether production capacity will be increased from 110000 tons / year to 180000 tons / year, and the existing combined polyether production capacity will be increased from 100000 tons / year to 200000 tons / year, A 100000 t / a monomer polyether production line and a 30000 T / a polyester polyol production line will be added.
On March 31, 2022, the environmental impact assessment documents of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 40000 t / a polyether amine project will be accepted and publicized, and the 40000 t / a polyether amine main plant, supporting utilities and auxiliary facilities will be built in Wanhua Yantai Industrial Park.
On March 31, 2022, Yantai Economic and Technological Development Zone disclosed the social stability risk analysis report of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) polyurethane industrial chain integration ethylene phase II project. The public participated in the information publicity. Wanhua Yantai Industrial Park will build 1.2 million T / a ethylene cracking unit, downstream supporting devices, utilities and auxiliary facilities. According to incomplete statistics, according to the average price of 2021, if all the Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) existing planned projects are put into operation as scheduled, it is expected that the new revenue will be 20 billion yuan in 2022, 54.1 billion yuan in 2023, and 1494.4 billion yuan after all projects are put into operation.
Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) spread index is in the historical quantile of 37.29%
As of March 31, 2022, Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) price spread index in 2022 was 100.06, 1.79 lower than Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 37.29%, 2.11 percentage points lower than Q4 in 2021. According to our prediction, the net profit of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) attributable to parent company in the first quarter of 2021 is 5.5 billion yuan.
Among them, the price difference index of Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) polyurethane sector in 2022 was 123.53, an increase of 6.81 compared with Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 37.40%, an increase of 4.73 percentage points over Q4 in 2021. The price spread index of Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) petrochemical sector in 2022 was 81.71, a decrease of 10.34 compared with Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 29.49%, 18.14 percentage points lower than Q4 in 2021. The price spread index of Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) new materials in 2022 was 55.06, a decrease of 12.24 compared with Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 19.74%, 20.59 percentage points lower than Q4 in 2021.
MDI price spread
In March 2022, the average price of aggregate MDI was 19044 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of – 21.01% and a month on month increase of – 9.13%; The average price of pure MDI was 23692 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of – 10.05% and a month on month increase of + 3.56%. On March 31, 2022, the price of aggregate MDI is 19350 yuan / ton, and the price of pure MDI is 22250 yuan / ton. In March 2022, the average price difference between polymerized MDI and coal and pure benzene was 12325 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year ratio of – 35.55% and a month on month ratio of – 15.15%; The average price difference of pure MDI was 16973 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of – 20.51% and a month on month increase of + 3.20%.
On March 31, 2022, the price difference between polymerized MDI and coal and pure benzene is 12632 yuan / ton, and the price difference of pure MDI is 15532 yuan / ton.
The output of refrigerators, freezers and cars in the downstream and the new construction of real estate improved month on month
In 2021, China produced 89.93 million household refrigerators, a year-on-year increase of – 1.1%; The export volume was 71.22 million units, a year-on-year increase of + 2.4%. In 2021, China produced 29.06 million refrigerators, a year-on-year increase of – 4.5%. Among them, in December 2021, China produced 7.578 million household refrigerators, with a year-on-year increase of – 5.20% and a month on month increase of – 6.27%; The export volume was 5.46 million units, with a year-on-year increase of – 15.74% and a month on month increase of – 34.0%; China’s refrigerator output was 2.736 million units, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.5% and a month on month increase of + 3.1%.
In February 2022, China’s automobile output was 1.813 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 20.66% and a month on month increase of – 25.15%; China’s automobile sales volume was 1.7337 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.17% and a month on month increase of – 31.49%.
From January to February 2022, the new construction area of houses was 150 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 12.15%; Among them, in February 2022, the new construction area of houses was 75 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 12.15%, unchanged month on month. From January to February 2022, the cumulative construction area of houses was 7.845 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of + 1.79%.
Profit forecast and investment rating
Given that the company is currently at the peak of capacity construction, and the projects under construction will gradually reach production capacity and contribute to the performance increment, we raised the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 26.605 billion yuan, 31.040 billion yuan and 37.660 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 10.2, 8.7 and 7.2 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Economic downturn; The project construction is not as expected; The market fluctuates greatly; New products are not as expected; Environmental protection and safety production; Intensified competition in the same industry; Product prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
