\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event: Recently, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) released the production and sales express in March. The production and sales of automobiles in March were 227574 and 227471 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 24.44% and 30.66% respectively. The comments are as follows: the sales volume in the first quarter increased significantly year-on-year: in order to facilitate the analysis and judgment of the company's operating performance in the first quarter, we analyzed it based on the quarterly sales data Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) 2022q1 achieved 608000 vehicle sales, a significant increase of 22.5% year-on-year and a slight decrease of 6.5% month on month (2021q4, the same below).
Performance of independent sector: 1) volume: GAC independent (ai'an + GAC motor) achieved sales of 135000 vehicles in 2021q1, a year-on-year increase of 47.2% and a slight decrease of 6.5% month on month. GAC motor's (Q1) sales increased by 448.21% year-on-year, and GAC motor's (Q1) sales decreased by 202821%. GAC AEAN sold 44874 vehicles in 2021q1, with a year-on-year increase of 154.9% and a slight increase of 7.8% month on month. That is, the sales volume achieved year-on-year high growth, which was relatively flat compared with 2021q4. 2) Model structure: the increase in the proportion of new models and medium and high-end models will be more conducive to improving business performance. According to our estimated model sales data, we judge that the sales proportion of GAC motor brand 2022q1 shadow leopard, new second-generation gs8, GS4 / gs4plus, M8 and M6 is significantly higher than that of 2021q1, but it is equivalent to that of 2021q4. That is, in terms of model structure, it has significantly improved year-on-year and basically remained the same month on month. 3) Direction judgment of 2022q1 comprehensive gross profit margin: the gross profit margin is directly related to the average price and cost of single vehicle, and the cost of single vehicle includes fixed cost and variable cost of single vehicle Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) 2022q1 sales increased significantly year-on-year, which will undoubtedly reduce the fixed cost of single vehicle (scale effect). At present, the continuous rise of raw materials leads to the increase of single vehicle variable cost, which will offset part of the scale effect. However, we believe that compared with the gross profit margin of 2021q1 (5.55%), the sales volume of 2022q1 independent sector increased significantly by 47.2% year-on-year, and the scale effect will play a leading role. We judge that the comprehensive gross profit margin of 2022q1 is expected to be significantly higher than that of the same period last year. Compared with the gross profit margin of 2021q4 (10.3%), the sales volume and model structure of 2022q1 are basically the same month on month, so the fixed cost of single vehicle has little change. Considering the factors such as the centralized provision of dealer rebates in the fourth quarter, the average price of single vehicle in 2022q1 will increase month on month. Therefore, we judge that the gross profit margin of 2022q1 may be better than 2021q4.
Performance of joint venture sector: 1) volume: GAC Toyota 2022q1 achieved sales of 247000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 23.4% and a month on month increase of 1.0%; GAC Honda 2022q1 achieved a sales volume of 212000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 16.7% and a month on month decrease of 8.2%; GAC Mitsubishi fell 34.5% year-on-year and 55.9% month on month; Guangfeike decreased by 75.5% year-on-year. The total number of four joint ventures in 2022q1 increased by 16.5% year-on-year and decreased slightly by 6.4% month on month. 2) The high-quality growth of Liangtian has driven the continuous improvement of profitability: Guangfeng's three flagship models 2022q1 accounted for 44.6%, compared with 31.4% in the same period last year. 2022q1 hybrid accounted for 22.5%. GAC Honda's production and sales of vehicles rebounded sharply in March, and guangben will also enter the launch period of new products this year, such as Binzhi replacement, haoying replacement and new SUV.
The business improvement of the large independent sector is on the way: the large independent sector of the company is mainly composed of GAC passenger cars (GAC motor brand), GAC ea'an (currently completed the asset restructuring of the integration of research, production and marketing), the Research Institute branch of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) and relevant administrative departments. Among them, the research institute undertakes the main R & D investment and expenditure, which belongs to the cost center. The company has high fixed costs and expenses, with depreciation + amortization + impairment totaling 6.507 billion yuan in 2021. Therefore, the improvement of sales volume will be a major prerequisite for the improvement of the company's independent operation. Since 2021, the company's GAC motor and ai'an brands have continued to make great efforts, and the sales of new models have performed well, such as GAC motor shadow leopard, second-generation gs8, M8, M6, aion s, aion y, etc. in 2022, it will continue to launch heavy models such as emkoo, M8 replacement, shadow leopard HEV, aion y plus, etc. We expect that in 2022, GAC motor is expected to hit the sales volume of 400000 + vehicles (324000 vehicles sold in 2021), and ai'an is expected to hit the target of 300000 sales volume (120000 vehicles sold in 2021). The company's independent improvement is on the way.
The company's profit forecast and investment rating: we are optimistic about the improvement prospect of the company's independent sector and the growth rate of the joint venture sector. We expect the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 12.03 billion, RMB 15.37 billion and RMB 18.43 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS of RMB 115, RMB 147 and RMB 176. According to the closing prices of a and h on April 7, 2022, the PE of GAC A shares are 10, 8 and 6 times respectively, and the PE of GAC H shares are 5, 4 and 3 times respectively, maintaining the "strongly recommended" rating of GAC A and GAC H shares.
Risk tip: the industry demand is sluggish, the company's new models are less than expected, the development of new energy vehicles is less than expected, and the price rise of raw materials is higher than expected.
